Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Springfield, MO

386 
WGUS73 KSGF 170102
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MOC119-170300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCDONALD MO-
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MCDONALD COUNTY...

AT 756 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT WATER CONTINUES TO FLOW 
ACROSS MANY ROADS IN MCDONALD COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9458 3649 9461 3650 9462 3664 9462
      3660 9408 3649 9408 3648 9457

$$

BOXELL

102 
WGUS73 KSGF 170251
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

MOC119-170301-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCDONALD MO-
951 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
MCDONALD COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3649 9458 3649 9461 3650 9462 3664 9462
      3660 9408 3649 9408 3648 9457

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS ARE REALLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO
THESE STORMS ARE PULSE IN NATURE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...SO EXPECT THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR THESE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THEM DUE TO THE WEAK
WIND FIELDS. WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN...THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO
RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY WERE WITH THE STORMS
YESTERDAY. NEVER THE LESS...WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT THERE WILL
REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED SEVERE WIND RISK WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WITH
THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR THE HAIL RISK WITH THESE STORMS IS ON THE
LOW SIDE. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

THE DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA TOMORROW AND SHOULD LIMIT THE PULSE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...DESPITE THE CONTINUED HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS A
RESULT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO WARM AROUND 105 ACROSS THE
THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER DEWPOINTS MAY KNOCK DOWN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES.
ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SEND A FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT
AND CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT...ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE AREA LIMITING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
SUNDAY MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...WILL HOLD OFF AND JUST
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH THIS
PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LATER PACKAGES.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE
AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT
TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...SO HAVE JUST PUT IN A MENTION OF CB
UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. SHOULD ANY SITES SEE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME ONLY BBG IS EXPECTED TO HIT
MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z TOMORROW MORNING.

CCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
104 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...LIMITED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 55 MPH.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 104 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
  THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
  HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES CAN BE
  EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REGAINING CONTROL.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
  THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE