Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Springfield, MO

953 
WGUS73 KSGF 210258
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
958 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

MOC131-141-210800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-100521T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
958 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MILLER AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 950 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RUNOFF IS OCCURRING FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA DURING THE MID 
EVENING HOURS. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL 
FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER STORMS WILL 
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
HIGHWAY 52 AT COON CREEK 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE O NEAR LAURIE...
ROUTE Z AT BLUE SPRING CREEK SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9263 3843 9242 3842 9239 3818 9240
      3818 9264 3821 9265 3822 9269 3822 9275
      3819 9277 3819 9285 3847 9268 3847 9266

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
843 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THIS
EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. SEVERAL REPORTS OF WALL CLOUDS WITH
MORE DISCRETE CELLS. CORES ON A FEW OF THESE CELLS HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH ANY MINI SUPERCELLS BEFORE WE GET TOO DECOUPLED.
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH TO NIL BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW...THEN A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK...IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT RECOVERED ALL THAT WELL AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
LOWER 60S HAVE NUDGED INTO FAR SW MO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
PUSHING CLOSER TO THE HWY 65 CORRIDOR WITH THE MAIN FRONT STILL
FARTHER WEST...JUST WEST OF CNU/PPF. GENERAL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP IN A SCT FASHION HEADING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPE IN THE 500
TO 1000 J/KG RANGE...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK...WITH ONLY A
LOW END RISK OF WIND. GIVEN THE LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...THERE IS ONLY AN OUTSIDE
RISK OF A TORNADO.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY...BUT
STEADILY...MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF ANY LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PUSHED EAST WITH IT. MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP
MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MO BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT...HAVE
SHORTENED THE LENGTH OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENDING TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY WILL BE MILD...THOUGH A WARM UP IS IN STORE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AFTER NEAR AVG LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...ABOVE AVG
HIGHS ARE ON TAP SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASING AMPLIFIED WITH A
LARGE TROUGH ANCHORING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WARMING TREND...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE TENDED TO UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN OUR VERY MOIST AND GREEN
CONDITIONS...THOUGH MID 80S (GIVE OR TAKE) CAN BE EXPECTED ALMOST
EVERY DAY. AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STELLAR CAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS...THUS ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING POP UP SHRA/TSRA HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
MVFR AT KSGF AND KBBG WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE
BETTER. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING LOWERING CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR AROUND...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KJLN. KEPT
THE IFR GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DID DELAY IT A FEW
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY COME UP LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
751 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

FLOODING RISK IS ELEVATED.
TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED.
LIGHTNING RISK IS ELEVATED.
HAIL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK IS LIMITED FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING FROM THE
TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...SOUTH TOWARDS HIGHWAY
60. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A
VERY LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH VERY
QUICKLY BY LATE THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGGRAVATE
EXISTING FLOODING ACROSS THE OZARKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO FRIDAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN
THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING
  EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

MOZ079-080-210015-
POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
646 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL DALLAS AND EAST CENTRAL POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 640 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

MOZ091-210130-
WEBSTER MO-
753 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
811 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             MARSHFIELD              37.34N 92.91W
05/20/2010  E0.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
827 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

MOZ092-210200-
WRIGHT MO-
827 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROVESPRING...OR 14 MILES
EAST OF MARSHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE