Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

092 
WGUS73 KSGF 151803
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

MOC065-067-091-149-153-203-215-229-152000-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-100515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-
OZARK MO-
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
DENT...DOUGLAS...HOWELL...OREGON...OZARK...SHANNON...TEXAS AND WRIGHT
COUNTIES...

AT 102 PM CDT...THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INDICATED THAT 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WAS PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN GAUGES AND RADAR ESTIMATES 
INDICATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO AND A 
HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL. MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE 
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

MULTIPLE LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE FLOODED ACROSS THE AREA 
INCLUDING...

ROUTES Z...E...AND AB IN WRIGHT COUNTY.
ROUTE NN IN SHANNON COUNTY.
ROUTE EE IN DOUGLAS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3682 9111 3649 9114 3650 9278
      3680 9278 3682 9292 3701 9291 3707 9290
      3707 9269 3748 9269 3747 9225 3761 9225
      3760 9182 3779 9181 3778 9132 3770 9132
      3769 9116 3751 9132 3750 9122 3714 9102

$$

SCHAUMANN

621 
WGUS73 KSGF 152000
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

MOC065-067-091-149-153-203-215-229-152010-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-100515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-
OZARK MO-
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR DENT...DOUGLAS...HOWELL...
OREGON...OZARK...SHANNON...TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES...

THIS WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AERIAL FLOOD WARNING THAT IS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3682 9111 3649 9114 3650 9278
      3680 9278 3682 9292 3701 9291 3707 9290
      3707 9269 3748 9269 3747 9225 3761 9225
      3760 9182 3779 9181 3778 9132 3770 9132
      3769 9116 3751 9132 3750 9122 3714 9102

$$

KARDELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED CHANCES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.

EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
AND IN ARKANSAS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44 AND COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LESS LIKELY HERE...HOWEVER WITH THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE CONTINUED AS IS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LEFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND TAPPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED. CHILLY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
60S...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH LESS TRAINING EXPECTED. HOWEVER
THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA
NEVER GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR SO DO NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO CONTAIN SOME HAIL...BUT ALL IN ALL SUB SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY AS IT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PATTERN CHANGE TO THE AREA AND A LESS
ACTIVITY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. A NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION LEAVING
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE STORM TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
BEING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION
TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA EACH MORNING. AS OF NOW HAVE LEFT
THE WEEK DRY AS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS ON THE LOW
SIDE.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MAINLY
EAST OF THE 3 TAF SITES AND AT THIS TIME CAN NOT SEE REASON TO
HAVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN PREDOMINANT TAF GROUP. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN PROBLEM TODAY/TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO OVERRIDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SREF CIG/VIS
PROBABILITIES SHOW GOOD CHANCES OF IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT FOR ALL 3
LOCATIONS AND HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE LATTER PERIODS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ077-
     079>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
457 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...ELEVATED.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
  DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
  THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE SOIL CONDITIONS THAT ARE
  BECOMING SATURATED AND WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
  THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
  TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
  OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

  WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE OCCURRED
  THIS PAST WEEK AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE AS THE GROUND
  REMAIN SATURATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE