Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPED DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND THIS HAS TRACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW HAD OUTRUN THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
EARLIER BUT HELPED TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 11 PM
AND MIDNIGHT. A NEW OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION BUT SHOULD MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AREA
FURTHER SOUTH FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND UPPER
DIVERGENT SUPPORT. OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT BUT POPS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
HAVE ADJUSTED REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ALL MODELS STILL BRING REMNANTS OF MCS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL BE GOING WITH 60 TO 70 POPS ACROSS
ALL BUT SOUTHEAST CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TODAY.

MAY SEE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE THEM OUT COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING.

MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME ACROSS THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR WEATHER RADAR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THAT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY OVER ONE OF THE AIRPORTS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.  CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WOULD BE
ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
728 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST RISK IS LIMITED.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAIL RISK IS LIMITED.
THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
THE EXTREME HEAT RISK IS LIMITED.
THE FLOODING RISK IS ELEVATED

 DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TODAY. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A JOPLIN TO
EMINENCE LINE.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE RISES AND INSTABILITY. AREAS WHICH
CAN RECEIVE SUNSHINE...HOWEVER...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

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