Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

192 
WGUS73 KSGF 211753
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

KSC011-211803-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100221T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-
1153 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST FOR BOURBON
COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3799 9508 3803 9508 3804 9506 3803 9462
      3770 9461 3768 9463 3767 9508

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TO AROUND
50 DEGREES NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS
PUSHED OUT OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS DEVELOPING IN AN
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE CAME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT IT IS STARTING TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FREEZING LINE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE LOW PASSES THROUGH AND THEN IT
WILL PUSH SOUTH AGAIN. A LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO REMAIN SO UNTIL BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ALL
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN RAIN THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA...SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THUNDER CHANCES EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...JUST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER BY THE TIME THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. COULD SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF A FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO ROLLA MISSOURI LINE BY
MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT.

DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS COLDER AIR SPREADS OVER THE REGION. A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL DIVE OUT OF THE NORTH ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES ON TUESDAY AS THIS
OCCURS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE AREA.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z SGF...BBG AND JLN TAFS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
PREVAILING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN THE SPRINGFIELD
VICINITY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE ONSET AND DURATION OF
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THIS FRONT MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH.
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT JOPLIN. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE LATER THIS MORNING...AND DEFINITELY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
522 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
  NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY. EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO WIDELY
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
  AREA THIS MORNING...THEN GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
  EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
  MAY BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
  TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
  INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

  AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW AND
  CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE
  POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
  INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
  OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A
  WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF