Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVERING FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL STAY NORTH OF US INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A CHANGE TO COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOTING A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP OVER THE WV MTNS...BUT STILL NOT
SUBSTANTIAL ATTM. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES LOOK FOR A FIRING UP
OF CONVECTION ALONG A THETA-E BOUNDARYS SET UP FROM CENTRAL KY
INTOT THE MTNS...WITH A LEE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE PIEDMONT. MODELS
SHOW SHOWER/TSRA SITUATED INTO FAR SW VA/SRN WV THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIPPING SE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH
CHANCES OVER THE EAST...SO KEPT POPS AT LITTLE TO NONE. SHOULD SEE
BEST CHANCES OVER MTN EMPIRE...SO HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO EVEN SOME
LOW LIKELY POPS OVER BLF-JFZ.

THE EVENING WILL SEE A DYING TREND TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS MAIN
DRIVING FORCE OF THE SUN IS LOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...LOOKING AT CLEARING
SKIES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE DEWPOINTS
STAY UP WITH SW FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTING
ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING 850 TEMPS. THE RECORD WARMTH WILL
STAY WITH US INTO WEDNESDA BUT WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WED
AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

KEPT HIGHS AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE COOLER AT NIGHT
IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THURSDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BEGINNING THE PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LIFTED INDICES ARE AROUND -1C WHICH IS STILL NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. HPC GUIDANCE
GIVING THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTING THE FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS. MUCH COOLER
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND 60S EAST. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. APPEARS THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND WILL BE SCT IN NATURE.
KEPT THE VCTS IN AT BLF/LWB AND HAVE ADDED CB AT ROANOKE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SUBSIDES AND LOOKING AT CLEARING SKIES.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS WHERE IT RAINS THAT FOG COULD FORM...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR ADDING IT TO THE TAFS.
OBVIOUSLY...KLWB HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER GIVEN
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KNOT POSSIBLE.

ANTICIPATING VFR INTO THURSDAY. LATER THURSDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY LEAVING
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SE WVA SITES AND VFR ELSW FOR WEEKS END.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEHWAT ERRATIC THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT
AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED OVER THE FOOTHILLS. MAINLY LOOKING AT
WEAKENING WINDS THIS EVENING AND HUMDIITIES RECOVERING TO THE 90S
TONIGHT. ANY WETTING RAINS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE
MTNS WITH ANY CONVECTION.

TUESDAY...WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST WILL BE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 2500 FEET. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ENHANCED BUT NOT RED FLAG. AN SPS
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONDITIONS STILL WARRANT TUE MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BLACKSBURG HAD ALREADY BEAT ITS
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY...REACHING 80 AFTER 1 PM. DANVILLE AS OF 3
PM HAD TIES ITS RECORD HIGHT. RECORDS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

APRIL 5TH   BLACKSBURG  BLUEFIELD  DANVILLE       LYNCHBURG    ROANOKE
HIGHS       80 (2010)   80 (1988)  88 (1999/2010) 91 (1942)  90 (1942)
APRIL 6TH
WARMEST LOW 51 (1997)   62 (1967)  62 (1997)      70 (1929)  63 (1929)
HIGHS       80 (1988)   80 (2005)  88 (1986)      90 (1929)  92 (1942)
APRIL 7TH
HIGHS       79 (2006)   79 (2000)  90 (1967)      90 (1929)  91 (1929)

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...JJ/WP
FIRE WEATHER...WP
CLIMATE...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
631 AM EDT MON APR 5 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-061045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
631 AM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.