Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND HUMID
AIR OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS STATES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE
AT 19Z/3PM. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE 1PM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 00Z...THE COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND BY 04Z/MIDNIGHT...THE LOCAL WRF FORECAST A MAJORITY OF ANY
REMAINING ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA JUST AFTER
09Z/5AM...AND BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. SO THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WITH NO CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS TONIGHT OR MONDAY AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS STAYING IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S... STAYED CLOSE TO
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE REASONABLE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. THE 12Z NAM IS ON THE SLOW SLIDE WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS ON
THE FASTER SIDE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR THE
UPPER TROUGH TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE RIDING
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SUGGESTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEING
SUPPRESSED AS SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WHILE AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THESE WILL AID IN UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS PROG
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA RADAR SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOMEWHAT RANDOM
COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ROA...BLF...ANF LWB ALL HAVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE
TO...OR WITHIN 10MN OF THE AIRPORT. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH STORMS EXPECTED BEFORE 23Z.

ONCE HEATING ENDS AND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AFTER 04Z WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF MVFR FOG.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE 12Z ON
MONDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY PRECIPITATION INTO THE TAF YET. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AT BLF AND LWB.

WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FAVORS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A LARGE BERMUDA
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND OFFSHORE. EXPECT
MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTIONS IN VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...REB
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/WERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
413 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-190815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
413 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE AND AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME OF STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WERT

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