Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
340 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ARRIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHSIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...AS DRIER AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHWS AND STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...THANKS TO LESS CLDS AND THE EXTRA LIFT
PROVIDED BY A WEAK H85 JET...UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH. THESE CLUSTERS WILL FILL INTO THE SW QUARTER
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
THIS EVENING. FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS EXTREME SW VA/SE
WEST VA WERE STORMS MAY TRAIN AND BACKBUILD. GOOD SHEAR AND
STRONGER WIND PROFILES...WITH 40KTS AT 10KFT WITH PREVIOUS
STORMS TDY...THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANS A DMGG WIND
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA WHERE BETTER
SHEAR EXISTS. CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL SCATTER AND DRY UP ENTIRELY
WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN PLACE AS THEY APPROACH THE PIEDMONT.
WILL NEED THE EXTRA BOOST THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE LATER THIS
EVENING FOR MORE NUMEROUS STORMS TO PENETRATE THE BLUE RIDGE AND
EAST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR DOES SEEP INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF CLDS HANGING ACROSS SE WEST VA WILL
DETERMINE IF GUIDANCE IS A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. FLOW BECOMING
MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT ALLOWS IT TO STALL ACROSS THE NC/VA
BORDER ON TUESDAY...AWAITING THE EASTERN TROUGH TO DEEPEN BEFORE
IT GETS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. GOOD INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS ACROSS
THE EXTREME SE CWA TUESDAY...SO STILL A FEW STRNG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES
TOO WARM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THESE CONTINENTAL AIRMASSES OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS...SO KEPT HIGHS NO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA
BORDER AT THE OUTSET OF THIS PERIOD BUT RELATIVELY STRONG (FOR
SUMMER) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE AN IMPETUS TO SHOVE THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
SO LINGERING POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY ITSELF LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE EARLY SUMMER DAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NW BY LATE IN THE DAY AND MID 50S IN THE SE...AND
HIGHS ONLY MID-70S NW TO LOW 80S SE. MOS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT
LOWER BUT WENT WITH HIGHER BLEND OF GUIDANCE. MORNING LOWS THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY SEEM CHILLY AFTER RECENT WEEKS WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND 50S IN NEARLY ALL AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION WITH AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM SE
CANADA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. NICE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
MID-70S TO LOW 80S AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
AND INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUING THE PLEASANT BREAK FROM THE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE CHARACTERIZED MOST OF
JUNE (AND MAY). DOWNSIDE IS THAT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
HOWEVER A STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY MAY BE EXPECTED BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND AMPLIFYING TO OVER 590 DM ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND THEN EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINS OF TS ALEX WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH FROM TX DURING THIS PERIOD AND INTO THE LOWER MS AND THEN TN
VALLEYS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE TO FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND WELL TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE BECOMING NOTICEABLE
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AND THE D-WORD MAY BE RAISING ITS HEAD IF
THIS PATTERN PERSISTS MUCH LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE LWB/BLF CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND WORTHY OF PERIODIC IFR
CIG AND VIS UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER CELLS. MORE SCATTERED
SHWS/STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...TIMED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION LATER AT THOSE SPOTS...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEAR KDAN ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH SUCH THAT KLWB CLEARS AND
FORMS IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF CLDS DO NOT BREAK AS
QUICKLY AS FORECAST THIS MAY ONLY END UP BEING A BRIEF IFR VIS
EVENT THERE.

FRONT MAY STALL LONG ENOUGH FOR AN ADDED SHOWER THREAT TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM KDAN SOUTH...WITH VFR ELSW AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING...VALLEY/RIVER FOG POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST...MAINLY CONFINED TO 09-12 UTC TIME FRAME.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/KM
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...JH/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-292000-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ013-014-016-017-032-033-043-044-058-292000-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
HALIFAX-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>012-015-WVZ042>045-292000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-GRAYSON-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-292000-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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