Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
723 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A RETURN OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...MAY TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN. CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AT 18Z/2PM AVERAGED AROUND
1 TO 2K J/KG ACROSS THE WEST. MID-LEVEL CAP AND DRY AIR ABOVE 8KFT
MAY HINDER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET. VALLEY AND RIVER FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT 20-22C AIR 85H AIR
INTO OUR REGION. SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. USED ADJMET FOR HIGHS WITH VALUES FROM LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...LOCALIZED LIFT OVER/NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN AND SFC TROF
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE AND FORCED ASCENT TO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH HEIGHTS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS AXIS OF 5H RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NOSES IN FROM THE SW ESPCLY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH EDGING IN BY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
WEAK SURFACE TROF TO THE EAST SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE DRIER NW
TRAJECTORY THRU MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN.
LOOKS LIKE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE FAR
WEST IF RH IS SUFFICIENT TO POP ISOLATED TSRA GIVEN RIBBON OF HIGHER
CAPE SO INCLUDED A TSRA MENTION. GFS EVEN DROPS THE REMNANT OF AN
OLD UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE SW BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER INTO THE
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING. THUS OTHER THAN 20ISH POP KEEPING IT
CLEAR TO PC INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE DEEPER
PWATS QUICKLY RETURN AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH STRONG HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE BEST WEAK
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE GFS AGAIN PRINTS
OUT SOME QPF. THUS ADDED IN SOME SCATTERED CHANCE POPS RIDGES AND
LEFT ELSW IN SLIGHT POPS GIVEN THE OVERALL LINGERING WEAK SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE.

TEMPS QUITE WARM MONDAY AND HOT TUESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
WEST/SW AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE WARMER 85H TEMPS EXTENDING TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THINK COULD BE AROUND 90 EVEN IN PARTS OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...OTRW MID/UPR 80S WEST TO LOW/MID 90S EAST.
LOWS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE VALLEYS
MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTH/CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
SE COAST THRU THE EXTENDED. PERIODIC S/W ENERGY PASSING OVERTOP THIS
HEAT DOME WILL BE THE KEY TO WHETHER OR NOT THE RIDGE FLATTENS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT AND/OR POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES TO
DIVE DOWN FROM THE NW. LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING WITH A WEAK FRONT OOZING INTO THE REGION BY WEEKS END...
WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE FLAT RIDGING WHICH KEEPS
TRACK OF IMPULSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THINGS QUITE
HOT/MUGGY BUT MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER PROGGED FEATURE ROUNDING THE 5H RIDGE WED
LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WHICH COULD PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THU
BEFORE WASHING OUT OR LIFTING BACK NORTH BY FRI/SAT. THUS PLAN TO
BUMP POPS TO LOW END CHANCE NW HALF LATER WED INTO THU AND THEN HAVE
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FRI/SAT WITH EITHER A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY OR TROF AROUND. OTRW WILL CONTINUE TREND OF ISOLATED POPS
TO JUST PC ELSW FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
ANY BOUNDARY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AND QUITE HOT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE NW WED AND OUT EAST
THU WITH HIGHS MID 90S SE. ELSW MUGGY MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
LIKELY THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION COMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WILL BRING
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL RNK TAF SITES TONIGHT.
CONVECTION...ITSELF...SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS ABUNDANT
DRY/STABLE AIR IS ALOFT AND KEEPING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY BELOW 20KFT.
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING MAY BE THE ONLY THING THESE STORMS CAN
PRODUCE. MODELS ARE CARRYING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS TIMING...WITH THE SLOWEST
MODEL EXITING SHOWERS AT DNAVILLE AROUND 08Z SUN. ONCE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT THEM TO LAST 1-2 HOURS. ANY RAIN FALLING
THIS EVENING WILL LED TO FOG FORMING BY MORNING. DENSE LIFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT BLF/LWB THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF RAIN DOES MAKE IT
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ROA/LYH/DAN WILL BE BORDER- LINE IFR-
MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICK AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
319 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-200730-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
319 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

VAZ013-014-016-017-022-023-032>034-200200-
BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-FRANKLIN VA-MONTGOMERY
VA-PATRICK VA-PULASKI VA-ROANOKE VA-
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...CARROLL...
FLOYD...FRANKLIN...MONTGOMERY...PATRICK...PULASKI AND ROANOKE
COUNTIES...

AT 853 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM BUCHANAN
TO INDIAN VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT
STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR FLOYD AND PEAKS OF OTTER AROUND 910
PM...BEDFORD AROUND 930 PM...ROCKY MOUNT AROUND 935 PM AND FAIRY
STONE STATE PARK AROUND 1000 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3767 7970 3735 7927 3661 8031 3695 8080

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
902 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             SALEM CITY              37.29N 80.06W
06/19/2010  E0.50 INCH       CITY OF SALEM      VA   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

BS

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