Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...
SWEEPING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS WELL WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH DEWPOINTS
STUCK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THRU THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR STORMS. EXPECT THE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE MUGGY AND SUMMER LIKE WITH LOWS
FALLING TO ONLY TO LOW 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGY.

SATURDAY MAY SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
BUT WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THUS
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. IN ADDITION SOME
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO RIDE EASTWARD IN THE UPPER
ZONAL PATTERN WHICH COULD HELP IN THE INITIATION OF MULTI-CELLULAR
STORMS OR POSSIBLY A LINEAR SQUALL-LINE SEGMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THROUGH BY EVENING. AGAIN THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOUTH AND
EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT IN WHAT WILL BE A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH CAPES PUSHING 2000 J/KG. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUATION OF WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPS PUSHING 90 IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-80S EVEN IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS NOT AS STRONG IN THE MODELS AS
PREVIOUSLY...SO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO
THE EVENING...GENERALLY LEFTOVER CONVECTION MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE MTNS...AND THEN IN THE LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL...SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRENGTHENING SW WIND KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...AND ALSO SOME
CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS FOR
SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MTNS WITH A STIFF WEST WIND IN THE
LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING A STRONG THETA-E
MAXIMUM DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...AM RELUCTANT TO LOWER POPS AT
THIS TIME. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW END LIKELY POPS THAT WE HAD
GOING...JUST ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND TRIED TO NARROW IT DOWN TO A
3 HOUR BLOCK WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY. SHEAR WILL
CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT ID TSTMS CAM MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH...THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED LINE OR
LINES OF CONVECTION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE
KEPT HIGH TEMPS WARM EAST OF THE MTNS SUNDAY...LOWER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPS AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES. MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT...SO I LOWERED MIN TEMPS MORE INTO THE LOWER AND MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH...WHICH KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE CWA IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN LINE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND TRACKING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE ACCEPTED THE CHC POPS FROM HPC FOR EACH PERIOD...WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS- HIGHEST CHCS LOOK TO BE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY SRN WV. IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS...IT COULD END UP
VERY WET WITH REPEAT MCS'S AND/OR TRAINING TSTMS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT
MUCH WIND SHEAR SO STORMS WILL BE "PULSY" IN NATURE. MAINTAINED
VCTS WORDING AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
WITH OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED UNTIL AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER DIURNAL HEATING CEASES AROUND 23Z/7PM TIME FRAME.

FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL CLOUD
DEBRIS. MORE CLOUDS MEAN LESS FOG. LESS CLOUDS WILL MEAN MORE FOG.
IF FOG DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO JUST THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS...AND MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM
A HIT OR MISS LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS
EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A BROKEN TO SOLID LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT EACH TERMINAL WITH ITS PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO
THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...PC
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...PC/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
514 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-050915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
514 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
SATURDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             RICHLANDS               37.10N 81.80W
06/04/2010  E0.25 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
407 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             CAVE SPRING             37.22N 80.01W
06/04/2010  E0.50 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

BS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
414 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

WVZ045-042115-
GREENBRIER WV-
414 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 408 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LEWISBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LEWISBURG AIRPORT AROUND 445 PM...FRANKFORD
AROUND 500 PM AND FALLING SPRING AROUND 515 PM.

LAT...LON 3807 8038 3790 8014 3769 8048 3777 8061

PC