River Flood Warning 38, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH 733 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE VA AND NC PIEDMONT.

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTN WITH
RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURES WAVES MOVING ALONG IT...WILL KEEP THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. INSOLATION HAS INCREASED IN THE EAST ADDING TO
DESTABILIZATION...AND WITH STRONG SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS FOR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

FURTHER WEST SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT AS LOWER DEWPOINTS EXIST
ACROSS SRN WV INTO NE TN.

BUMPED HIGHS UP IN THE EAST TO LOW TO MID 80S WITH RECORD HIGH AT
DANVILLE CLOSE TO FALLING.

TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO FALL...AS WINDS STAY UP...AND
COLDER AIR MASS LAGS UNTIL THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY AFTN PICK UP INTO
THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE GREENBRIER COUNTY MTNS LATE THU
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS EAST.

WENT CLOSE TO MAV/MET BLEND ON HIGHS THU AND LOWS THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. A STRONGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE ARKLATEX...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER KENTUCKY. THE RESULTING EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD PRODUCE CLOUDY/COOL/WET CONDITIONS INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GOING WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL KEEP DAN/LYH IN CORRIDOR OF BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND FEW TSRA THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT
THESE SITES WILL SEE SHOWERS BUT KEPT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW AND
ADDED CB. WITH THESE SHOWERS VSBYS/CIGS COULD DROP INTO MVFR OR
IFR RANGE...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

FURTHER WEST WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AT BLF EARLY THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
BY 22Z...WHILE LWB REMAINS VFR BUT SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR PRESENT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF.

TONIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE EWD PROGRESSION OF FRONT ON SPEED.
LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS LAGGING UNTIL LATER THU MORNING.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH IFR FOG AT LWB
LATE TONIGHT.

ONCE WINDS INCREASE...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 12-14Z TIME
FRAME THU.

POST FRONTAL WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
VFR UNDER LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH AT DANVILLE MAY BE BROKEN. CURRENT RECORD IS 83 SET IN
1973.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS/WP
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/WP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>018-020-WVZ042>045-282000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
349 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032>034-043-282000-
SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
349 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-282000-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
349 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 733 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ019-022>024-035-282000-
ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
349 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1134 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE SOUTH BOSTON      36.66N 78.88W
10/27/2010                   HALIFAX            VA   NEWSPAPER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON HYCO ROAD NEAR SHADY GROVE
            METHODIST CHURCH.

0243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE SOUTH BOSTON       36.64N 78.85W
10/27/2010                   HALIFAX            VA   NEWSPAPER

            HOME ROOF BLOWN OFF AND OUTBUILDINGS BLOWN DOWN ON LOWERY
            ROAD.

&&

CHENARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
126 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

NCZ003>005-020-VAZ032-043-271815-
HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-STOKES NC-SURRY NC-YADKIN NC-
126 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HENRY...
PATRICK...ROCKINGHAM...STOKES...SURRY AND YADKIN COUNTIES...

AT 119 PM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
YADKIN INTO SOUTHERN STOKES COUNTY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM IN THE
LINE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YADKINVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

STRONG STORMS WILL BE NEAR LONE HICKORY AROUND 130 PM...SHACKTOWN
AROUND 145 PM...KING AROUND 200 PM AND GERMANTON AROUND 215 PM. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND
APPROPRIATE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3605 8088 3611 8088 3630 8067 3658 8042
      3657 7971 3655 7972 3655 7963 3624 8000
      3625 8045 3612 8044 3609 8050 3604 8050

WERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

VAZ045>047-271945-
APPOMATTOX VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-
311 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND
CAMPBELL COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER APPOMATTOX...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ANDERSONVILLE AROUND 330 PM AND BUCKINGHAM
AROUND 345 PM.

LAT...LON 3736 7856 3737 7858 3734 7860 3720 7882
      3721 7883 3718 7884 3715 7889 3726 7914
      3747 7894 3763 7871 3748 7837

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