Frost Advisory 8, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
357 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WASV MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BEHIND THIS
SECOND COLD FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS
OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF THURSDAY 19Z...3PM...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO KENTUCKY. A VAST AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES. TONIGHT
THE APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW IN CANADA. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE NAM ARE PROGGED TO REACH 35
TO 45 KTS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09Z....5AM...AND 15Z...10AM...ON
FRIDAY. ALSO MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT THE LOWEST EXTENT OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL DIP BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...AND THE HEIGHT
OF THE INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE ONE
AREA WILL BE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD CO VA
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...OF
CONCERN WILL BE HIGHER PEAKS OF OF ALLEGHANY AND BATH COUNTIES IN VA
AND EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE ADVISORY WILL SPAN MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S COMMON EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THEN SNOW
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE INVERSION BREAKS...VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND YIELD A FAIRLY QUICK
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE 850 MB JET WEAKENS A BIT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST
AND THE COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF THURSDAY 19Z...3PM...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO KENTUCKY. A VAST AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE UNITED STATES. TONIGHT
THE APPROACHING REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER
LOW IN CANADA. MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 850 MB WINDS FROM THE NAM ARE PROGGED TO REACH 35
TO 45 KTS...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 09Z....5AM...AND 15Z...10AM...ON
FRIDAY. ALSO MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT THE LOWEST EXTENT OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL DIP BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL...AND THE HEIGHT
OF THE INVERSION WILL BE LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE ONE
AREA WILL BE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD CO VA
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO...OF
CONCERN WILL BE HIGHER PEAKS OF OF ALLEGHANY AND BATH COUNTIES IN VA
AND EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. THE ADVISORY WILL SPAN MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S COMMON EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE...THE FAR WESTERN
SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THEN SNOW
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AS THE INVERSION BREAKS...VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND YIELD A FAIRLY QUICK
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL TREND SLOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE 850 MB JET WEAKENS A BIT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN THE EAST
AND THE COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPING...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST.
IN THE MOUNTAINS...LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS BEGINNING MONDAY. HAVE
FOLLOWED HPC/S TIMING...WHICH BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MORE SLOWLY
THAN THE NAM AND GFS...AND WOULD POTENTIALLY BE A WETTER SOLUTION
FOR THE CWA INTO WED...AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BACK DOOR FRONT.
SO...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR SHOWERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT...EXPECTING THE BACK DOOR FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALSO MEANS MORE CLOUD COVER...AND COOLER DAY
TIME HIGHS. BY THURSDAY...A FINAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
DEEPENING AND MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND FORECAST AREA
GETS INTO MORE OF A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO NW UPSLOPE AREAS IN SE WV. TEMPS THU AND THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SEASONALLY COOL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONE COLD FRONT WAS TO OUR EAST...AND ANOTHER WAS APROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS SECOND ONE WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SAVE THE VERY
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF
UPSLOPE MVFR BKN-OVC CIGS BETWEEN KBLF AND KLWB STARTING AROUND
03Z...11 PM...AND HOLDING IN PLACE UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS
AROUND 12-14Z...8AM-10AM...ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z...3AM. 850 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE AFTER THIS TIME...AND
REMAIN AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH 12-15Z...8AM-11AM. ANTICIPATE
RIDGE TOPS AOA 3000 MSL TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS. SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH MIDDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT...FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED AIRCRAFT AS FAR EAST AS KDAN AND KLYH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSYBS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     VAZ015>017-019-020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ001-002-018-019.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     WVZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...DS

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