Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...LOCATED NEAR THE MASON DIXON...LINE WILL PROGRESS SOUTH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WITH A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ON THURSDAY THIS SAME FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 800 PM FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN MCS PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 800 PM FOR SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM. LATER THIS EVENING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO NOSE SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S THROUGH THE
LOWER 60S.

ON THURSDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AS SHORT LIVED WEDGE WITH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVAILING FLOW IN THE WEST
BECOMES SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON...SO WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
HERE ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
EXCEPTION HERE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE
READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK WEDGE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE THE GULF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ANY
SHOWERS LEFT-OVER FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSE
OF HEATING THURSDAY EVENING. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY...THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS TO BE MUGGY.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LEE
TROF AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST. THE
EAST...PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT...MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY AND COULD WARM INTO THE U80S TO L90S. AREAS SEEING SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY OF U70S
TO L80S. FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT JUMPS TO THE LEE TROF WITH A NEW
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS LINE MAY DEVELOP NEAR DANVILLE
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST INTO ROCKINGHAM/CASWELL COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THIS AREA AT A CHANCE AS AREAL COVERAGE NOT TO IMPRESSIVE.
BEST POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS REDUCING TO
SLIGHT IN THE EAST. FRIDAY EVENING HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
VA MOUNTAINS AND MORE TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE FRONT ADVANCES
TO THE LEE TROF. IF WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY IS MORE PRONOUNCED...THE
FOOTHILLS COUNTIES...ROANOKE/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE HILL
CITY OF LYNCHBURG MAY BE SHADOWED AND NOT SEE MUCH RAIN. WILL KEEP
POPS AS IS AND AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. COOLER AIR MAY BE
SLOW TO COME INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT....THE
COOLER DRIER WILL LAG BEHIND. WILL KEEP MUGGY CONDITIONS IN FOR
SOUTHSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER DRIER TEMPERATURES IN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE COMING AROUND TO MORE OF A NICER WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND. WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT...HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING A STRONG SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF
COULD OVERRIDE THE MID ATLANTIC WEDGE ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH LOWERED
POPS...KEPT LOW CHANCE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. EVEN IF
RAIN DOES DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY WEEKEND PLANS. MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RIDE
OVER THE WEDGE ON MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH TIMING ISSUES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH WITH POPS BUT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING VERY WET.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LESS HUMIDITY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES FORECAST HINGING ON OVERRUNNING AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH RAIN FALLING INTO WEDGE ON MONDAY...HAVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
FORECAST SIMILAR TO HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS PUSHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A ROBUST
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS BETWEEN KBLF-KLWB BETWEEN
18-20Z...AND THEN FARTHER DOWN STREAM NEAR KROA AND KLYH CLOSER TO
20-22Z. IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AREAS NEAR KDAN WILL EXPERIENCE
IT AROUND 22-00Z. VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL BE COMMON
WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HIT AND MISS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND THE MAJORITY OF THESE
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A KTNB-KLYH LINE.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUCKLE THE WARM FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY IS NORTH OF THE AREA BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. A WEDGE
OF MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIGE. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS AFTER
ABOUT 06Z IN THIS AREA WITH SLOW RECOVERY AFTER 14Z THURSDAY
MORNING. REGIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE OF A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...AND THESE SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE QUICKER
AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION WITH ALL BUT SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY NIGHT BEING FREE OF SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

VAZ014-018>020-022>024-033>035-044>047-058-059-131830-
MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ017-131830-
FLOYD-
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-032-043-131830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
PATRICK-HENRY-
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ043>045-131830-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WVZ042-131830-
MERCER-
227 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

VAZ018>020-023-024-WVZ044-045-121945-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH VA-BOTETOURT VA-CRAIG VA-GREENBRIER WV-MONROE WV-
ROCKBRIDGE VA-
304 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY...BATH...BOTETOURT...
CRAIG...GREENBRIER...MONROE AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES...

AT 258 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
NORTH OF WARM SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR EARLEHURST...CALLAGHAN...SWEET SPRINGS...
AND INGALLS FIELD AROUND 310 PM...DOUTHAT STATE PARK...POTTS CREEK...
JORDAN MINES...AND HOLLINS AROUND 315 PM...CLIFTON FORGE CITY AND AND
YOST AROUND 320 PM.

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3817 7946 3815 7943 3810 7949
      3788 7913 3781 7916 3779 7919 3781 7925
      3765 7936 3761 7945 3758 7945 3747 7961
      3759 8059 3807 7999 3807 7996 3811 7994
      3825 7976

EXPERIMENTAL

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
313 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             3 SE MABRY MILL         36.72N 80.36W
05/12/2010  E0.50 INCH       PATRICK            VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            OBSERVED AT THE MEADOWS OF DAN FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

VAZ022-033-034-122000-
BEDFORD VA-FRANKLIN VA-ROANOKE VA-
330 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...FRANKLIN AND ROANOKE
COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ROANOKE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR VINTON AROUND 335 PM...STEWARTSVILLE AROUND
340 PM...CHAMBLISSBURG AROUND 350 PM AND MONETA AROUND 400 PM.

THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG BY CALLING
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3734 7947 3711 7950 3717 8005 3735 8003
      3735 7990 3733 7987 3731 7985 3733 7983
      3734 7978

EXPERIMENTAL

JJ

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