Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECOND FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OF THE DAY MVG ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WV FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE SOUTH...AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
CARRIED HIGH POPS FOR MCS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE A WARM...MUGGY NIGHT. WILL NOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL STORMS IN THIS AIRMASS...BUT DO NOT SEE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON FEATURES TO ORGANIZE THE STORMS. GOING ON THE WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXITING COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE BOUNDARY COMPLETELY EXITING THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CWA BY MIDDAY FRI. HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING A BIT TO INCORPORATE
SLOWER SREF. SREF HAS GENERALLY BEEN SLOWER THAN THE NAM IN BRINGING
DRIER AIRMASS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TIMING OF THE 12Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE NEARING THIS SOLUTION.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED AT
OR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CERTAINLY NO COPIOUS
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...BUT THERE
MAYBE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. COOLING AND
DRYING WILL BE THE TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STICKING WITH THE THEME OF DRY WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. A SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS OVER OUR CWA FRI THROUGH SUN...AND WITH THE LOWERED
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL AUGUST WEEKEND.

EXPECTING TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 90S FOR THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK AS THE 500MB RIDGE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
HEAT CORE MOVES CLOSER. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH THIS BEING DAY 6-7...DON'T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
GUIDANCE TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS
OF IFR AND GUSTY WINDS INVOF OF CONVECTION.

AFTER 00Z...GENERALLY BECOMING MVFR IN HAZE AND FOG...WITH
CONVECTION INCREASING OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST OHIO ZONES AFTER 06Z AS
COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FORM THE WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR
IN PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN AREAS OF CONVECTION.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD IF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/TAX
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

KYZ101-103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-
036>040-046-047-051830-
GREENUP-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
225 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ102-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033>035-051830-
CARTER-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-LINCOLN-MINGO-LOGAN-
BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
225 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
326 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHAWNEE                 39.61N 82.21W
08/04/2010                   PERRY              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE CITY.

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE GLOUSTER          39.54N 82.06W
08/04/2010                   ATHENS             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOM JENKINS DAM REPORTS MULTIPLE MEDIUM AND LARGE
            BRANCHES DOWN IN THE PARK.

&&

ARB