Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WE STAY ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PASSING
DISTURBANCES...AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR OUR REGION WHICH LIES UNDER THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS
WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND HARD TO TIME UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE
TO RIDE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE QUITE NOISY IN THIS PATTERN.
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS SEEN NOW IN THE FORM OF A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOVING EAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LIKELY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION THAT MAY INFLUENCE THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT AS IT TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE MOIST FEED. THUS...CAT POPS
THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...TRENDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE CLUSTER WEAKENS MID MORNING. WILL
ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THIS AREA.

BEYOND THIS...MAINLY A DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. GOING GENERAL CHANCE POP THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT UPPER FEATURE MODELS LATCH ONTO IS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE ACTIVATES A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
VICINITY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DROPS IT EAST SOUTHEAST
OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. RAISING POPS TO LIKELY...MAINLY
NORTHWEST HALF TONIGHT...BUT A STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE AT
ANY TIME. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...TOO EARLY TO
JUMP ON ANY AREAL FLOOD WATCH...GIVEN THE FEATURES ARE PROGRESSIVE.

GOING JUST A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY. THINK THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE BEHIND THIS MORNING CLUSTER OF STORMS. FOR
TONIGHT...DEFINITELY ON THE MILDER SIDE OF TEMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE ON WELL MARKED WAVE CONTINUING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO
PRIOR RUNS. MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL NO DOUBT MESS AROUND WITH
DETAILS OF EVENTUAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BUT WITH THAT YET TO BE
REVEALED...I HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY/ COINCIDING WITH
VORTICITY AXIS AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
EVIDENT IN MODELS...GFS AS USUAL THE HIGHEST WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EVEN AROUND 4000 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH TIMING OF WAVE...LOTS
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND AGAIN...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND
WSW-ENE VORTICITY AXIS SLOWING DOWN AS IT SINKS SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT ARE
ALREADY WET FROM RECENT RAINS. NOT VERY MUCH SHEAR MONDAY...BUT WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WIDE CAPE...UPDRAFT STRENGTH COULD LEND ITSELF TO
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

WAVES NOT AS OBVIOUS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...BUT GENERAL PATTERN SIMILAR. THAT IS...WE REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES...AND ANY WEAK WAVE WILL BE
ABLE TO HARNESS INSTABILITY OF OUR AIR MASS. UPSTREAM COMPLEXES WILL
BE ABLE TO ADVECT THROUGH OUR REGION.

I AGAIN USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHILE OPTING FOR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FEW DAYS NEXT
WEEK. KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY PER A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES EXPECTED TO PASS ON TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY.

DECREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF BCSREF AND BCCONSAII FOR LOWS...AND BCGMOS
FOR HIGHS AS THEY REFLECT BETTER TEMP FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THRU THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING WITH ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND
AGAIN AFTER 03Z SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT...RADIATION FOG WILL
BE AT A MINIMUM. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS OUT SIDE OF
CONVECTION...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR BEHIND THE CONVECTION TIL
14Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF HEATING. CONVECTION INCREASES AGAIN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 02Z WITH APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP/ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
427 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

KYZ103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-190830-
BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
427 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101-102-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-190830-
GREENUP-CARTER-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
427 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

OHZ075-076-084-WVZ009-010-019-180830-
ATHENS OH-PLEASANTS WV-RITCHIE WV-VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-WOOD WV-
329 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT ATHENS...NORTHERN
RITCHIE...NORTHERN VINTON...NORTHERN WOOD...PLEASANTS AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM EDT...

AT 323 AM EDT...A LINE OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING OVER THE
AREA...PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.

HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL BECAUSE IT IS NIGHT...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO SEE WATER COVERING ROADWAYS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3945 8192 3946 8108 3935 8101 3923 8089
      3926 8275 3937 8273 3937 8253 3940 8252
      3939 8229 3947 8228 3948 8216

19

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