Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1142 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER EXIT OVERNIGHT. DRY AND QUITE WARM TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSES WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST UPDATED LATE THIS EVENING TO REFLECT RADAR AND MESOSCALE
TRENDS OF STORMS THAT IGNITED AFTER OVERCOMING CAP. SEVERAL STORMS
HAVE BEEN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. WILL SEE ACTIVITY PERSIST IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BEFORE IT WINDS DOWN AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT BEFORE DAWN.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER THE RIDGE...AS WELL AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.  RUNNING MAX TEMPERATURES OFF EXPECTED H850
VALUES YIELDED NUMBERS IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MANY.  ALONG WITH THIS...HOWEVER...COMES FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD PREVENT DECOUPLING OF WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WENT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON SREF AND FAST FLOW...THINK THAT FASTER
IS THE WAY TO GO. THEREFORE WENT CLOSE TO THE GFS TIMING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS IS THE COLDEST OF THE MODELS WITH AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...WELL COLDER THAN THE ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE WENT WARMER
BEHIND THE FRONT THAN INDICATED ON THE GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHORT
TERM...WILL EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

MODEL DISCREPANCY EXISTS WITH MOISTURE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF. 12Z GFS HAS COLDEST SOLUTION WITH
ADDITIONAL LINGERING MOISTURE HINTING AT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE DAY FRI. 850 TEMPS ON THE 12Z GFS WERE
MINUS 5 TO MINUS 7. NOT READY TO GO THAT COLD. TRENDED MORE TOWARDS
HPC AND ECMWF WITH DECREASING POPS THROUGHOUT FRI. TEMPS WILL
DECREASE THUR AND FRI IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT DROPPING TO
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE WITH WARMING AND DRYING SET TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM FRONT WILL CONT TO LIFT NORTH THRU THE AREA THIS EVE...AND EXIT
BY 05Z TONIGHT. SOME SCT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT WILL
TEND TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. INSERTED TEMPO CB IN
KHTS...KCRW...KPKB USING RADAR TRENDS FOR TIMING. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL GET HIT. HOWEVER...GUST FRONT
FROM BKN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KCRW BETWEEN 00-01Z...WITH
GUSTS TO PERHAPS 30KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN WARM SECTOR. BL WINDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FG. SHALLOW SFC INVERSION COMBINED WITH 30-40KTS OF
FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK WARRANTS LLWS WORDING FOR KCRW...KHTS...AND
KHTS 11-13Z. VFR CONT FOR TUE IN WARM SECTOR. GUSTY WINDS OF
20-25KTS TUE AFTN IN GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH SOME 30KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OH FROM PRESSURE GRADIENT.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PASS
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINED PARAMETERS IN CONSIDERING FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S...MINIMUM
RH VALUES END UP IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE.  FUELS ARE OF COURSE
STILL QUITE DRY...WITH RAINS THIS MORNING LIKELY DOING LITTLE TO WET
THEM.  WINDS ARE THE QUESTION.  WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS MAY REACH THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...NOT CONVINCED AT THIS TIME THAT THEY WILL GET
CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN IN KY/OH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
SUPPORTED THE DECISION TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN HWO AS AT LEAST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
APPEARS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/RPY/TAX
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB/TAX
AVIATION...30
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1150 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013-015-024>026-033>036-
046-070400-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-LINCOLN-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-POCAHONTAS-
1150 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR AREAS NOT RECEIVING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD CREATE WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER. IF THE THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS OR LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASES...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014-016>020-027>032-037>040-
047-070400-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
1150 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD CREATE
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. IF THE THREAT OF STRONGER WINDS OR LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASES...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1023 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             GRAYSON                 38.32N 82.99W
04/05/2010  U1.25 INCH       CARTER             KY   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1028 PM EDT MON APR 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             RUSH                    38.33N 82.78W
04/05/2010  E0.88 INCH       BOYD               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT MON APR 05 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             GRUNDY                  37.28N 82.10W
04/05/2010  E0.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 INCH HAIL.

&&

ARB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

WVZ037-060300-
NICHOLAS WV-
1049 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL NICHOLAS COUNTY...

AT 1046 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BABCOCK STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
NICHOLAS COUNTY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1130 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

WVZ034-035-060415-
RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
1130 PM EDT MON APR 5 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN RALEIGH COUNTIES...

AT 1127 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LESTER AROUND 1140 PM...SOPHIA AROUND 1150
PM...SHADY SPRING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND GHENT AROUND 1210 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES

...I-64 NEAR BECKLEY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 133...THE WEST
VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 45.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

30

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