Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LINE OF STORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OHIO. WEAK COLD
FRONT IN LOWER GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THURSDAY. LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THE MESOSCALE FEATURES OF CONVECTION...WITH INITIAL BATCH BLOWING UP
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL KY...WELL SOUTH OF WHERE MODELS HAD SUGGESTED.
THIS BATCH CONTINUES TO EAT ITS WAY SOUTH INTO WHERE SUNSHINE HAD
PRODUCED A LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE. NOW...WELL NORTH OF THE WORKED OVER
ATMOSPHERE FROM THE INITIAL BATCH...NEW LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
HAS FORMED ALONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...AND IS NOW CARRYING THROUGH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS LINE WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL TO ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...FROM 01Z IN PERRY COUNTY OHIO...ALONG
OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z-04Z...TO ROUGHLY THE I-79 CORRIDOR AROUND 06Z.
THE LINE COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO. PORTIONS OF THE LINE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

AFTER THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

BRINGING CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...WENT WITH MID 80S
LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO A BLEND OF
MET AND MAV NUMBERS...WHICH TURNS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED MOS RAW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER THE NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE SHORT
TERM.  NOT TO MENTION THAT EACH MODEL EXHIBITS NUMEROUS
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THE TWO CLOSEST SOLUTIONS WERE
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...SO DECIDED TO USE AN EVEN COMBINATION OF
THOSE TWO MODELS FOR THE FORECAST.

HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BECAUSE WARM AND JUICY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.  MAXIMUM PW VALUES ON THURSDAY EVENING WILL REACH
1.74 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THEREFORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

DIURNAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN AND WHERE THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ONCE
AGAIN A CONCERN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PW VALUES MAY MEET OR
EXCEED 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE
GFS.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECIDED TO BASE THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON AN EVEN MIXTURE OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS HAVING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOW.  THERE IS A
RELATIVELY DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE
TO THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.

THAT BEING SAID...THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE SLOWLY PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE THE FORCING NECESSARY
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  THE RAIN WILL
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY MORNING...AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AREA WILL DRY OUT BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT AND A SURFACE HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. RAIN WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIFTS THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH THE
REESTABLISHED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THE LINE WILL CARRY THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO
01Z-03Z...THROUGH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 03Z-06Z. BEHIND
THAT LINE...PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD YIELD VALLEY MVFR TO IFR FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW CIGS IN SOME SPOTS 09Z-12Z. NEW CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF IFR.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JEM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JEM
LONG TERM...JEM
AVIATION...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
341 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>037-031945-
LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
341 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZAROUDS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ007-031945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-MASON-
341 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ016-018-028>030-032-038>040-046-047-031945-
ROANE-CALHOUN-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
341 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZAROUDS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
PRMARY THREATS ARE DAMAZING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ008>011-017-019-020-031-031945-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-JACKSON WV-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-
341 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
PRMARY THREATS ARE DAMAZING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
PRMARY THREATS ARE DAMAZING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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