Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO JUST
PAST HUNTINGTON. MODELS AGREE THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE MORE
THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OHIO.
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NOT ONLY
FROM DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT IS BEING
AIDED BY INCREASING SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR TRYING TO INTRUDE OVER THE BOUNDARY. THUS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST POPS CENTERED IN A BAND JUST AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY...FROM NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND ON INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MOVE
ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. THIS PRESENTS A FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. NO CHANGE TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH SEEMS TO BE
WELL PLACED AT TIME. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WITH FLOOD
GUIDANCE SO LOW IN ALL THE MOUNTAINS...THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...POPS DECREASE TO CHANCE
THIS EVENING AS ANY IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE OHIO SYSTEM CAN
TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE IN TEMPS TONIGHT PER LOTS OF CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS THAT NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION DRIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA...NEARLY STACKING UP WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OH TO
WESTERN WV ON TUESDAY. HAVE HONED IN POPS ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE
/AN OCCLUDED FRONT OF SORTS/...WHERE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTION WILL
BE. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE AN
INCH-AND-A-QUARTER OR LESS...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP
UP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS BECAUSE OF NEARLY STACKED NATURE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE ONGOING RAINFALL FURTHER
SATURATING THE SOIL...AND THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE
COALFIELDS ZONES AND POCAHONTAS COUNTY...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOKS GOOD.

SURFACE LOW LOSES DEFINITION INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS TO AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER
ALSO DROPS OFF TO ABOUT AN INCH OR LESS. ONLY PUT SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST IN THE FAR
NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. BUFKIT PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT GOING
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...DESPITE 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...BECAUSE OF EFFECTS FROM
LOW CLOUDS AND FAIRLY STABLE LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE EXIST IN THE
EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM NEAR END OF WEEK. 06Z GFS PROGRESSES UPPER LEVEL
LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION. 12Z GFS HAS 500MB
LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERLY ECMWF SOLUTION. KEPT POPS
RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH THESE INCONSISTENCIES IN MIND. THUNDER
POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT SLIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS
CWA...SETTING UP LOW LEVEL WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GULF...WITH MODELS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE WATER ISSUES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE THEN HAS THE
500MB LOW TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PHASING
TOGETHER WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER SE CONUS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CWA IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECASTED TEMPS MADE WITH LATEST MEX/MAV.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN FAR NORTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT LOCALLY
IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE  DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. BECOMING MVFR TO IFR MANY LOCATIONS WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 14Z TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS A CONTINUED THREAT.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ024>026-
     033>036-046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV/TAX
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
347 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005>008-013>016-018-027>030-037>040-047-
182000-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
LEWIS-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
347 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD
CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A FLOOD THREAT. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD
CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A FLOOD THREAT. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ024>026-033>036-046-182000-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-POCAHONTAS-
347 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-031-032-182000-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-WIRT-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
347 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-182000-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
347 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
554 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SISSONVILLE             38.50N 81.64W
05/17/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER IS REPORTED IN A HOUSE ON MARTINS BRANCH RD. WATER
            RESCUE REQUESTED.

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SISSONVILLE             38.50N 81.64W
05/17/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE REPORTED STUCK IN DEEP WATER ON SISSONVILLE DR.

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
614 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROSS LANES             38.44N 81.77W
05/17/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE HOUSES REPORTED FLOODED AND WATER RESCUE
            REQUESTED ON BIG TYLER RD.

&&

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROSS LANES             38.44N 81.77W
05/17/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE AREA OF 5000 BIG TYLER RD REPORTED FLOODED AND
            IMPASSABLE.

&&

ARB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROSS LANES             38.44N 81.77W
05/17/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE REPORTED STUCK IN HIGH WATER ON DALEWOOD DR.
            WATER RESCUE REQUESTED.

&&

ARB