Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DRIER AIR QUICKLY REACHES US ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH 9PM EST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 135 FOR MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TRAINING CONTINUES ACROSS SE OH...KEEPING FLOODING THREAT GOING THIS
AFTN. THIS BROAD AREA OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HVY...HAS NOT BUDGED ALL
DAY. IN FACT IT HAS RETREATED EVER SO SLIGHTLY NW OVER PAST FEW HRS
AS FINAL SFC WAVE GETTING GOING ACROSS TN VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTING
IN CLOUDS BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN TN/EASTERN KY/SW WV/AND SW VA.
AS A RESULT TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPR 60S...CREATING A PRETTY GOOD DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
ACROSS WESTERN LOWLANDS. MORNING CINH ACROSS SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE AWAY OVER NEXT FEW HRS...ALLOWING CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FIRE OUT IN AREAS THAT SEE SUN COULD BECOME SVR WITH
WIND PRIMARY THREAT. CONCERNING SVR WITH QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH...EXPECT LEADING EDGE WILL COMPRISE OF DISCRETE
BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING HRS. REGIONAL GEM CONTINUES TO PERFORM
THE BEST IN DEPICTING THESE MORE SUBTLE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...AND
USED IT AS A STARTING POINT FOR POPS.

EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS SE OH/NE KY IN
LOCALIZED AREAS BEFORE THIS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
EVENING. FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS AREAS FURTHER
EAST AS THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO EAST AS COLD FRONT BEGINS
THE MARCH EAST AFTER FINAL SFC WAVE PASSES...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. QPF
EAST OF OH RVR...LOOKS TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. OF
COURSE THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE STRONG
CONVECTION. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THINK NE MTNS WILL
ESCAPE AS LINE SHOULD BE MOVING ONCE INTO THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND GIVEN THE FACT THEY HAVE ESCAPED ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN SO FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAIN WAVE RIPPLING ALONG FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z MONDAY...ALLOWING FRONT TO SWEEP
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY MORNING. THUS...RAINFALL WILL BE
RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ENDING MOST AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE EAST AND MAXIMIZE AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS BREAKING.

MODELS ALSO AGREE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...WITH LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION.
STILL...ENOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS UP NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
WOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE AT THIS RANGE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THRU THE
AFTN.  MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH
CIGS GENERALLY MVFR AT WORST. SCT CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT FURTHER
EAST LATE THIS AFTN AMID INCREASING INSTABILITY.

MOISTURE FEED MOVES EAST STARTING DURING LATER THIS AFTN...DRAGGING
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.  THUNDER IS LIKELY...BUT KEPT
MENTION AS CB MOSTLY FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION GETTING HIT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. FROPA OCCURS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z...WITH RAINFALL DIMINISHING BEHIND IT.  MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A BIT...BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
BY MORNING.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>037.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>019-024>029-033>037-032015-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 135 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WVZ038>040-046-047-032015-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ009>011-020-030>032-032015-
GREENUP-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-
GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

WVZ046-047-022200-
POCAHONTAS WV-RANDOLPH WV-
458 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF AUDRA STATE PARK TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF CASS SCENIC
RAILROAD TO 12 MILES WEST OF CASS SCENIC RAILROAD STATE PARK TO 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENBANK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR DURBIN AROUND 505 PM...MINGO...VALLEY
HEAD...DURBIN...AND COALTON AROUND 510 PM...MILL CREEK...AND
HUTTONSVILLE AROUND 520 PM...MONTROSE...ELKINS AND DAILEY AROUND 530
PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

30