River Flood Warning 14, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT PRESSING SOUTH INTO WARM MOIST AIR MASS TODAY...RETURNING
NORTH THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ALONG I-64 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY KY/WV/OH
TRI-STATE AREA...FROM ONGOING REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

COMPLETE OVERHAUL OF FORECAST BECAUSE OF MESOSCALE FEATURES
OVERRULING THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE VERY POOR
HANDLE OF SITUATION. PLACEMENT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON
700MB DEFORMATION FIELD SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE WRF-NMM WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BEST
IDEA OF CURRENT AND UPSTREAM AXIS OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION BAND
SHIFTS FROM I-64 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...SOUTHWARD INTO THE WV/VA
COALFIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE ALREADY
RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

FOR THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS...A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HOWEVER...GIVEN TOUCHY SITUATION WITH
MODELS HAVING POOR HANDLE ON THINGS...AND SURFACE FRONT STILL YET TO
PASS THROUGH...WILL NOT DROP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NORTH JUST YET
UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE THREAT IS OVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WHILE LOSING DEFINITION
TONIGHT...WITH BIG /THOUGH TEMPORARY/ DROP OFF IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. A WELCOME RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD.
FRONT RETURNS BACK NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT...AHEAD OF RATHER IMPRESSIVE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL AFFECT US THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PW'S...AOA 1.5 INCHES...RETURN QUICKLY WITH THE WARM FRONT...SO
PLENTY OF JUICE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE AS UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXPANDS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH. THE NET RESULT WILL BE ENOUGH JUICE FOR CONVECTION
WITH THE FRONT...BUT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY MAY BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION....ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGH PW'S.

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY...THAT MAY LEAD TO HEAT PROBLEMS. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO SOAR BACK INTO THE
90S THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO BE A CONCERN AS PW VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES
AGAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS
IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS MODELS INDICATING UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BAND OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE HOLD ON THE CENTRAL TO
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY. EXPECTING AXIS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED IFR ALONG THE KY/WV/OH TRI-SECTION
THROUGH CENTRAL WV AT 06Z...TO SHIFT VERY SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
10Z. A RELATIVE LULL OCCURS 10Z-13Z...THOUGH STILL WITH SCATTERED
TSRA IN THAT SAME BAND...THEN MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 14Z ONWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE IN NE KY THRU SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA.
TO THE NORTH...THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES WILL
BE MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER OHIO VALLEY MAY EVEN SEE
BRIEF IFR VALLEY FOG 10Z-12Z THIS MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES REALLY
WIND DOWN 00Z-06Z THURSDAY AS FRONT PRESSES SOUTH.

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED IN MANY VALLEYS 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO NORTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING TOOK PLACE OVERNIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
SO FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE I64 CORRIDOR
AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT MORE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...SO THAT THE
HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE IN LINE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TODAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL/JMV
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...JMV

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E IRONTON             38.53N 82.66W
07/21/2010                   LAWRENCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES IN UPPER AND UPPER TOWNSHIP.

&&

TAXFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW SUMMIT             38.45N 82.72W
07/21/2010                   BOYD               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL SECTIONS OF ROUTE 5 CLOSED NEAR THE TOWN OF
            SUMMIT DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS ROADWAY.

&&

TAXFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. ALBANS              38.38N 81.82W
07/21/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RESIDENCES FLOODED ON VINE STREET AND KANAWHA TERRACE AT
            GREENBRIER STREET.

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W ST. ALBANS          38.38N 81.84W
07/21/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RESIDENCE FLOODED ON NORTHERN END OF COAL RIVER ROAD.

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW TORNADO            38.34N 81.87W
07/21/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGH WATER CAUSING RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ON VORPE ROAD.
            WATER STILL RISING AT THIS TIME.

0245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOUTH CHARLESTON        38.36N 81.71W
07/21/2010                   KANAWHA            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            VEHICLE STUCK IN HIGH WATER AT THE ROCK LAKE DRIVE
            UNDERPASS. WATER RESCUE UNDERWAY.

&&

TAXFORD

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