Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGH HUMIDITY KEEP UNSETTLE WEATHER THRU
TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING THRU MONDAY. COLD FRONT
BRINGS STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SPEED EXIT OF TODAYS WAVE. WILL KEEP HIGHER
POPS ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS LOOK DIVIDED IN THEIR PCPN SOLUTIONS WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AT H5 AND A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. NEAR 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS...AND
PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...EXPECT ANY STORM CAPABLE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
QPF FIELDS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND SREF...WHICH QPF
INTENSITIES LOOK GENERALLY SIMILAR.  DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS/SREF
SOLUTION PROMPTING MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NGT AND
MON...DECREASING MON NGT SPREADING SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU TUE NGT AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES TRIES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

WEAK FLOW AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH READING IN THE UPPER 60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ADOPTED BIAS CORRECTED MOS
NUMBERS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POPS RETURN WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS WV THRU WED NGT. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW COMPARABLE SOLUTIONS ON INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THEIR QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRIER
WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. REMOVED POPS THU THRU FRI
NIGHT...AND INTRODUCED CLEARING AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD GUIDANCE...A
LACK OF BUOYANCY...AND GFS DRY COLUMN SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
MOS...TWEAKING IN OCCASIONS WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED SREF FRO LOWS.
GENERALLY HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO
THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT ON SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD
REACH THE LOWER 90S LOWLANDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...EXCEPT FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WHEN HIGH MOISTURE COULD KEEP
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE WET
GROUND...FOG WILL QUICKLY FORM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT OVERNIGHT...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A LOW
CUMULUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
LOCALIZED IFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH FOG
DURING PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL
SUNDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-130815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE CHAUNCEY          37.78N 81.94W
06/12/2010                   LOGAN              WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PART OF CHURCH LYING ON ROUTE 10 IN NIBERT FROM MUDSLIDE.

&&

NWEBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
831 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE CHAUNCEY          37.78N 81.94W
06/12/2010                   LOGAN              WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DAIRY HOLLOW RD AT NIBERT RD WASHED OUT.

&&

NWEBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLDEN                  37.81N 82.07W
06/12/2010                   LOGAN              WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES ONGOING.

&&

NWEBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
834 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DINGESS                 37.87N 82.17W
06/12/2010                   MINGO              WV   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES ONGOING.

&&

NWEBB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
859 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

VAZ003-004-130130-
BUCHANAN VA-DICKENSON VA-
859 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCHANAN AND NORTHEASTERN
DICKENSON COUNTIES...

AT 855 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GRUNDY TO GRUNDY TO BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR OAKWOOD AROUND 920 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3726 8239 3729 8232 3728 8215 3738 8195
      3728 8184 3728 8181 3723 8174 3718 8178
      3718 8182 3714 8188 3712 8200 3708 8201
      3705 8204 3703 8215

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
936 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ102-105-WVZ005-130215-
CARTER KY-LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE WV-
936 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN
CARTER AND WEST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 932 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GRAYSON LAKE
STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HITCHINS AROUND 940 PM...WILLARD AROUND 950
PM...YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 1010 PM AND LOUISA AROUND 1020
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 169 IN KENTUCKY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3837 8307 3828 8279 3824 8279 3826 8271
      3820 8254 3800 8266 3810 8292 3814 8290
      3818 8293 3818 8299 3820 8301 3819 8306
      3824 8314

30