Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING THRU MONDAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGH
HUMIDITY KEEP UNSETTLE WEATHER THRU TUESDAY. COLD FRONT BRINGS STORM
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIKE THE LOCAL MODELS WITH THIS SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION HAS HANDLED TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP WELL THROUGH
THE MORNING.  EAST WEST ORIENTED BAND FROM KY INTO WESTERN WV SHOWN
SLIDING TO SE.  DO NOT SEE WATCH RIGHT NOW AS THE BEST FORCING VCNTY
OF EAST WEST BAND LINED WITH DRIEST AREAS WITH 1 HR FFG AROUND 1.5
TO 2 IN AND 3 HOUR 2 TO 2.5 IN.  FORCING MOVES SE OUT OF AREA BY 06Z
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT SO HAVE
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG BUT NOT GONE WITH REAL LOW VSBYS.  WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND NORTH HAVE TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.
ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONT WITH NO GOOD ORGANIZED SYSTEM FOR RAIN LIKE
TODAY HAVE KICKED UP HIGH TEMPS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS LOOK DIVIDED IN THEIR PCPN SOLUTIONS WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AT H5 AND A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. NEAR 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS...AND
PW EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...EXPECT ANY STORM CAPABLE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
QPF FIELDS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND SREF...WHICH QPF
INTENSITIES LOOK GENERALLY SIMILAR.  DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS/SREF
SOLUTION PROMPTING MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NGT AND
MON...DECREASING MON NGT SPREADING SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THRU TUE NGT AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES TRIES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER.

WEAK FLOW AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH READING IN THE UPPER 60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ADOPTED BIAS CORRECTED MOS
NUMBERS WITH MINOR TWEAKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS
SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
POPS RETURN WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS WV THRU WED NGT. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGEST ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW COMPARABLE SOLUTIONS ON INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THEIR QPF FIELDS. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...PROVIDING DRIER
WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. REMOVED POPS THU THRU FRI
NIGHT...AND INTRODUCED CLEARING AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD GUIDANCE...A
LACK OF BUOYANCY...AND GFS DRY COLUMN SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS
MOS...TWEAKING IN OCCASIONS WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED SREF FRO LOWS.
GENERALLY HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 80S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO
THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT ON SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD
REACH THE LOWER 90S LOWLANDS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...EXCEPT FRI NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WHEN HIGH MOISTURE COULD KEEP
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE WITH WAVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOLDING CIGS 2
TO 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH VSBYS GENERALLY 6 MILES AFTER PRECIP.
HEAVIEST SHOWERS/TSTORMS TAKING CONDITIONS TO LOCAL IFR VSBY/CIG.
WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO SE TONIGHT.  THIS IS WHERE FCST GETS TRICKY.
RIGHT NOW EXPECT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS
TONIGHT SO FIG AND CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR RANGE OVER NIGHT.  IF
ENOUGH CLEARING DOES OCCUR CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN FOG.  BY MID MORNING SUNDAY EVERYWHERE WILL RETURN TO
VFR CIGS AND 7 MI VSBY.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
LOCALIZED IFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG DURING PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
RECEIVING RAINFALL SUNDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AAR/ARJ
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...AAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-130815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHICH
COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELKINS                  38.94N 79.83W
06/12/2010  1.01             RANDOLPH           WV   PUBLIC

            TO 1.50 INCHES.

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ102-103-105-122015-
BOYD KY-CARTER KY-LAWRENCE KY-
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT BOYD...CARTER AND
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WERE ALONG A
LINE FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTER CAVES STATE PARK TO GRAYSON TO
5 MILES SOUTH OF CANNONSBURG...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR
TRAINING OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH IN THIRTY MINUTES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THIS
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR HITCHINS AROUND 330 PM...BUCHANAN AROUND
340 PM...RUSH AROUND 350 PM...WILLARD AROUND 400 PM AND BUCHANAN
AROUND 410 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT

I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 185 IN KENTUCKY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3836 8324 3842 8325 3851 8319 3840 8297
      3835 8259 3828 8257 3824 8261 3817 8262
      3817 8264 3815 8263 3817 8289 3821 8309
      3827 8316 3824 8321 3825 8328 3834 8333

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

WVZ005-013-024-025-122145-
LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-WAYNE WV-
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOGAN...MINGO...SOUTHWESTERN
LINCOLN AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 410 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
AFFECTING THE AREA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH...WITH A TENDENANCY FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE STORMS
EXIT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THIS RAIN
WILL FALL IN QUICK BURSTS...WITH HALF AN INCH IN THIRTY MINUTES
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 119 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 39.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3758 8215 3763 8219 3762 8221 3767 8229
      3778 8234 3791 8247 3797 8247 3801 8253
      3817 8262 3822 8261 3822 8229 3797 8196
      3789 8176 3786 8178 3781 8172 3783 8168
      3779 8162 3776 8176 3771 8173 3751 8194

30