High Wind Warning 11, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
513 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH A CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL TRACK TOWARD WYOMING TODAY. A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TODAY WITH SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
TO EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND STRATIFORM
PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WYOMING TONIGHT. THIS PRECIP
WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THE STRONG QG FORCING OF -40KM^2/1E16S
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK RIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
AXIS WHICH WILL ENHANCE A MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL
HELP AMPLIFY PRECIP WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SPILL MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO THE UPPER EAST SLOPES.
PORTLAND OREGON REPORTED H7 TEMPS OF -10C LAST EVENING SO IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE GFS IS CORRECT IN DROPPING H7 TEMPS TO -7
ACROSS WESTERN WY BY 12Z THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS AS WELL AS THE WIND
RIVER MTNS. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE MOUNTAINS ZONES CONSIDERING THE VOLUME
OF TOURISTS IN THESE AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS
COULD EVEN DROP TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7K EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW WEST OF THE
DIVIDE BY 12Z THU.

5 H7 ISOHYPSE ARE PROGGED OVER WY THURSDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING 39 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR CPR THU. HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY TO CASPER
FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 21Z THU. THIS TYPE OF RELATIVELY FAST MOVING
FAST MOVING TIGHTLY WRAPPED SHORTWAVE TYPICALLY PRODUCES THESE
TYPE OF STRONG GRADIENT WINDS.

A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WHEN H7 TEMPS CLIMB
BACK TO 13C IN SOUTHERN WY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER WYOMING.  MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS IN THE
LATTER PERIODS WITH ECMWF STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY WHILE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH...BRINGING A GOOD CHUNK OF ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY.  FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS...PREFERRING TO GO WITH A PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ALONG THE LINES OF THE GEFS MEAN.  THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS HARD TO TIME WEAK SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL HAVE
TO BE DEALT WITH 24 HOURS OUT OR SO.  MEAN POSITION OF
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON SOUTH SIDE OF
WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER WITH BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEAN H7 TEMPERATURES 12-14C ON SOUTH SIDE OF FRONT WHERE LOWER
ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 85.  TEMPERATURES
ON NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL BE 5 TO 10F COOLER ON AVERAGE.
SUMMER BEGINS 528 A.M. ON MONDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE A SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEST THIS MORNING.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFFECTING THE WEST AND NORTH.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  VERY GUSTY WINDS TO 45KTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL... NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION... STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FRIDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WYZ019-020-030.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WYZ017-018.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WYZ028.

&&

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...TWB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON

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