Wind Advisory 19, NWS Reno, NV

692 
WWUS75 KREV 022335
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

NVZ004-030045-
/O.CAN.KREV.LW.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-101203T0600Z/
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
335 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SUNSET IS APPROACHING AND WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE A BIT THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL END SHORTLY. THEREFORE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS CANCELED.

$$

CAZ072-073-NVZ002-003-030600-
/O.CON.KREV.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-101203T0600Z/
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TRUCKEE...
BRIDGEPORT...MAMMOTH LAKES...INCLINE VILLAGE...SPARKS...
GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY
335 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING: WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
  SOME BY MIDNIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. LOCAL
  GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS.

* IMPACTS: STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...
  ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 89 IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND HIGHWAY 395 FOR
  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE
CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR SUDDEN GUSTS OR CROSS WINDS.  CHECK
OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

617 
WWUS75 KREV 030239
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
639 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

CAZ072-NVZ002-030345-
/O.CAN.KREV.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-101203T0600Z/
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TRUCKEE...
INCLINE VILLAGE
639 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS IN THE TAHOE BASIN HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES HAVE LOWERED TO 60
MPH. 

$$

CAZ073-NVZ003-030600-
/O.CON.KREV.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-101203T0600Z/
MONO-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRIDGEPORT...MAMMOTH LAKES...SPARKS...
GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY
639 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

* TIMING: WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
  SOME BY MIDNIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH
  GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS.

* IMPACTS: STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ALONG
  HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO TO MAMMOTH LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...SHOULD USE
CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT FOR SUDDEN GUSTS OR CROSS WINDS.  CHECK
OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES.

&&

$$

BRONG

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

958 
WWUS75 KREV 030548
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
948 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

CAZ073-NVZ003-030700-
/O.EXP.KREV.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-101203T0600Z/
MONO-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRIDGEPORT...MAMMOTH LAKES...SPARKS...
GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY
948 PM PST THU DEC 2 2010

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO TO
MAMMOTH LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE IN WIND PRONE AREAS.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
332 AM PST THU DEC 2 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE PLUME JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER TODAY AND AS JET BEGINS TO SAG
SOUTH...IT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
TO THE CENTRAL SIERRA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIP FOR TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO HIT THE SIERRA THIS MORNING
AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT LOCATIONS  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE MODEST WITH AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
WET SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE TAHOE
BASIN AND TRUCKEE.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE JET NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGES AND GUSTY WINDS MIXING DOWN
INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA. WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MIXED OUT
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECTING SIMILAR MIXING TODAY AS WELL. 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40-60 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS SECTIONS
ALONG MONO COUNTY SHOW A DECENT SIGNATURE FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TAHOE BASIN...ZONE 3...AND ZONE
73 TO ADDRESS THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR PYRAMID LAKE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND INTO MONO COUNTY WILL BE BETWEEN 80 AND 90 MPH AT
TIMES AND WIND GUSTS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST
IN MONO COUNTY. GUSTS IN MONO COUNTY UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...WHILE WIND EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN THE RENO-CARSON AREA MAY
EXPERIENCE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

WITH THE INCREASED CHANCE OF MIXING TODAY AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SNOW LEVELS NEEDED TO BE RAISED AS WELL AS DAYTIME HIGHS.
TEMPS IN WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WHILE SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S. IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH ZONAL FLOW...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
7500-8000 FEET TO THE SOUTH AND 7000-7500 FEET IN THE NORTH BEFORE
FALLING ON FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF US-50. BY FRIDAY EVENING A CUT
OFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CA COAST AND DEEPENS ALLOWING FOR WEAK
RIDGING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF PRECIP
BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT OFF LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. LINDAMAN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO RAISE POPS AND SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WARM TEMPS AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD.

NON GFS MODEL AND ENSEMBLE TIMING FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS UPPER
LOW IS COMING AROUND TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF. IN HINDSIGHT (I WAS
LEANING GFS YESTERDAY) I SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS WAS A POSSIBILITY
GIVEN THE WELL KNOWN TENDENCY OF THE GFS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
CONSOLIDATED WITH EJECTING SYSTEMS INLAND.

WITH THAT SAID...I HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE HIGH SIERRA. SOUTH TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER LOW FAVORS MONO
COUNTY WITH BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW THERE SO I HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF
THERE FOR NOW (SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF). FOR AREAS OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA...THE UPPER PATTERN IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR MUCH SPILLOVER GIVEN DECIDEDLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700
MB WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SIERRA CREST (MORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT 700 MB HELPS TO PUSH PRECIP FURTHER INTO
THE LEE OF THE SIERRA). HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER OUT IN THE BASIN
(HAWTHORNE/FALLON/EASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTY) CAN STILL GET PRECIP IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH MODELS INDICATING A JET
NOSE MOVING OUT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT TO ENHANCE LARGE
SCALE LIFT.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD FOR A LULL IN THE ACTION. BY TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO A HUGE COLD TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...TELECONNECTIONS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL
THROW MOST OF ITS COLD AIR NORTH OF THE REGION WITH OUR AREA BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST BUT WARMER ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...SOME
COLDER AIR CAN (PROGGED BY THE GFS/EC WEDNESDAY) EEK INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IF ANY SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES IN THE
FAST ZONAL FLOW CAN IMPINGE ON THE AREA.

WITH DETAILS QUITE SCANT AT THIS TIME...I HAVE CONTINUED THE GENERAL
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS PER PREVIOUS PACKAGES ALTHOUGH I DID UP
POPS A BIT WEDNESDAY PER SOME AGREEMENT IN MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
PROBABILISTIC QPF. AS FAR AS TEMPS AND SNOW LEVELS...I HAVE RAISED
THEM SOME WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN INDICATING WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...DO NOT TAKE TOO MUCH STOCK IN THE
EXACT NUMBERS (JUST THE TREND) AT THIS TIME AS THEY WILL BE CHANGING
AS SYNOPTIC TO SUB SYNOPTIC MODEL DETAILS EMERGE. ALL IN ALL...IT
LOOKS LIKE A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. SNYDER
&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH KRNO UNLIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW
-SHRA FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY SO
PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY RAIN FOR KTRK/KTVL UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
FRIDAY IF NOT LONGER. THEREFORE...VSBYS SHLD REMAIN PREVAILING ABOVE
5SM THRU THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD GO AS LOW AS 010-015 WITH
SNOW FALLING DOWN TO NEAR 7000 FT MSL. SNYDER
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     NVZ002-003.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     CAZ072-073.

&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO