Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

138 
WWUS42 KRAH 051558
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

NCZ007-021-022-060000-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100206T1700Z/
/O.EXB.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100206T0600Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

BASIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM GEORGIA ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING... BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. 

TIMING AND DURATION...PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BETWEEN RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. 

IN ADDITION... THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ON
SATURDAY.

IMPACTS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL PERSIST... ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

NCZ038>040-051700-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100206T1700Z/
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

NCZ008-009-023>025-060000-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-100206T0600Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...HENDERSON...BURLINGTON...
CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM
1058 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

BASIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM GEORGIA ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING... BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. 

TIMING AND DURATION...PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BETWEEN RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. 

IN ADDITION... THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ON
SATURDAY.

IMPACTS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL PERSIST... ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
629 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 157 AM FRIDAY...

...FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT CONTINUES THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...

THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST STORM TRACK FROM CAE TO NEAR FAY TO OFF
THE VA COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY APPEARS A BIT TOO FAR
WEST/INLAND. THE CLIMO PROFFERED 00Z/NAM TRACK/STRENGTH WAS
PREFERRED (RIGHT ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM
CHS AT 700 PM THIS EVENING... TO HATTERAS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR NW ZONES IN THE STRONG HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN VA AND EXTENDED SW INTO WESTERN NC AND
UPSTATE SC. THE STORM WAS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN FL.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND
OVER EASTERN NC. IT IS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE INITIAL
RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING OVER THE SOUTHERN NC MOUNTAINS
NE INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM ASHEVILLE
AND BREVARD NE TO HICKORY... MORGANTON... WILKESBORO AND MOUNT
AIRY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ALREADY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE WERE INITIAL REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET IN WINSTON-
SALEM... GREENSBORO AND BURLINGTON AT THE ONSET THURSDAY EVENING...
BUT SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT... IT CHANGED TO RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAD COOLED TO 33 AT WINSTON-SALEM... WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SE. DEW
POINTS WERE STILL IN THE MID 20S NE TO MID 30S SW PIEDMONT.

ONCE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN FROM THE SW THROUGH 400
AM... WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CLOSELY AS IT
SHOULD SET UP THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION. THE EVENING RAOB FROM GSO
INDICATED STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL COOLING POTENTIAL WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER A GOOD POSSIBILITY
AS IT MOISTENS UP. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY IN FORSYTH AND POSSIBLY NW GUILFORD...
NORTH DAVIDSON... AND PERSON COUNTY. THIS IS DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING PROCESS WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE THERMAL PROFILE INTO THE
SNOWY NOSE... NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER.

PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE TRIAD THROUGH AROUND
12Z BEFORE RAPIDLY RETREATING NORTH BETWEEN 13Z-15Z... DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL WARMING ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. A BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST NW OF THE YADKIN
RIVER... JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BETWEEN 09Z-
12Z... WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. FORECAST 1000/850 AND 850/700
THICKNESSES THROUGH 12Z IN THE 1295-1300 AND 1545-1550 RANGES AND
STRONG MOISTURE FLUX INTO OUR REGION SUPPORT THIS.

IN ADDITION... THE PARTIALS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE... ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 08Z- 12Z... WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE FROM ROXBORO TO HENDERSON... AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS EXTREME NORTHERN ORANGE AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES. SINCE WE
ALREADY HAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THERE... WE WILL
CONTINUE THAT THROUGH THE MORNING... WHERE A 1-2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO REMOVE A FEW OF THE SE TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
SETS UP. IN THE TRIANGLE... SOME SLEET AND SNOW MAY MIX IN
ESPECIALLY FROM RALEIGH NORTH AND WEST... BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY
12Z-13Z.

AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL WARMING SPREADS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING... THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT INTO
SOUTHERN VA BY 18Z. HOWEVER... THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL BE TO COME. WE WILL THEN HAVE A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ISSUE TO
DEAL WITH IN THE NW ZONES. PARTIALS FORECASTS OF 1304-1310 AND
1580 FOR 1000/850 AND 850/700 LEVELS SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL
BUT OUR FAR NW ZONES (FORSYTH AND POSSIBLY NW GUILFORD AND NORTH
DAVIDSON) WHERE FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD LIKELY OCCUR... BETWEEN
100 PM AND 700 PM TODAY. USING THE SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FREEZING RAIN... IT APPEARS THAT ALL BUT NW
FORSYTH WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AS TEMPS HOVER BETWEEN 32-33 DEGREES.
THEREFORE... WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

BOTTOM LINE... FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA... EXPECT SNOW
IN THE NW AND FAR NORTH THIS MORNING... POSSIBLY ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES FROM NEAR WINSTON- SALEM TO ROXBORO AND
HENDERSON... THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. ICE
ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WITH LOCAL TWO TENTHS
POSSIBLE... THEN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS IN THE
31-33 RANGE TODAY. ELSEWHERE... EXPECT RAIN BECOMING LOCALLY HEAVY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON... RISING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FROM
FAY TO GOLDSBORO THIS EVENING. THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE THEN E OF OUR
REGION... AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NE-N.

AS FOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL... SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
BOTTOM LINE HERE... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
OF OUR REGION. EVEN IN THE NW... THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WILL DO
LITTLE TO STOP RUNOFF. THEY WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE MELTING
SNOW/ICE PACK AND SATURATED GROUND THERE. ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL
RUNOFF VERY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF OF HATTERAS
SATURDAY... WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE HYBRID DAMMING CAD
BOUNDARY. IT WILL PUSH BACK SE BACK THROUGH THE FAY TO GSB AREAS
SATURDAY MORNING. RAPID COOLING WILL ENSURE. THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACK
EASTWARD FROM SE KY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE VA/N NC
PIEDMONT DURING THE DAY WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES... POSSIBLY
INTO THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS. ELSEWHERE... JUST SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WITH A LOW OVERCAST AND VERY CHILLY NORTHERLY
FLOW.

THICKNESSES AND THE THERMAL STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SNOW DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG LIFT ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACK VERY NEAR THE VA BORDER. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE OF 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE TRIAD EAST TO ROXBORO AND HENDERSON. A SATURATED GROUND TO THE
SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS JUST AROUND FREEZING TO MINIMIZE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS E-S.
HIGHS MOST AREAS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S... WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE E-S ZONES DURING THE DAY.

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COLD WITH A
CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STORM AND
THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE 20-25... UPPER 20S SE. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY 35-45 NW TO SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:
EXPECT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
SEE CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO BE RATHER CHILLY ON SUNDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1270-1280M 12Z
SUN...AND IN THE 1275-1290M RANGE AT 00Z MONDAY. BASED ON LOCAL
RESEARCH...THESE THICKNESSES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMEST SOUTH. THESE
VALUES ARE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW SUN NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A 3-5 KT NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWAT VALUES < 0.20")...
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE PRETTY EFFECTIVE. AS A RESULT...
ANTICIPATE A CHILLY MORNING...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 19-25F. COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS (RWI TDF IGX TTA VUJ ETC.)

MONDAY:
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...WITH 1025-1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER NC AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE. AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA AND MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
WILL INTERACT OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WITH N-S ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN TX
AND OK DURING THE DAY MON. AS A RESULT...WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY MON AFT/EVE...WHATEVER DOESN'T SUBLIMATE
MOVING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS. BASED ON
THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S...OR 41-47F FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...CLOSE TO BU SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST W/REGARD TO
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...DEPENDING ON HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM WAVES INTERACT OVER THE MIDWEST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE DEAMPLIFYING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
MON/MON NIGHT...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DEEPENING MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...DIGGING RAPIDLY ESE INTO THE NORTHERN OH VALLEY
TUE/TUE NIGHT...MOVING ESE ACROSS PA/NJ DURING THE DAY WED...AND
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC WED NIGHT. THE PARENT LOW ASSOC/W THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN ON TUE...WITH A NEW PARENT
LOW FORMING FURTHER NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOC/W THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUE AS A FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO/THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT. GIVEN 60-80 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED
AT THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A WEAK/BAGGY LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN ASSOC/W THE DEEP
UPPER LOW MOVING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. WITH FAIRLY
MARGINAL DYNAMICS...QPF IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON THE
LOWER END...WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING LESS THAN 0.25" FROM 18Z
TUE THROUGH 06-12Z WED. W/REGARD TO PTYPE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW
THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL RAIN...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LATE MORNING OR EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THICKNESSES
WOULD BE BRIEFLY SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT.
HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS TO 50% IN THE 18Z TUE TO 06Z WED TIME
FRAME...WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION MENTIONED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
TUE 26-30F...HIGHS TUE 35-44F FROM NW-SE (HYBRID OR IN-SITU WEDGE).
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE TRICKY...DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA AND COOL/DRY AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL FCST
LOWS RANGING FROM 26F NW TO 34F SE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
FORECAST APPEARS DRY IN THIS PERIOD...WITH HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
WED/WED NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE DEEP SOUTH MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A
SNOW/SLEET MIX AT THE GSO/INT TAF SITES THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING
TO FZRA BY 12-15Z...THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ALL RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FZRA IS POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CAN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NE. FURTHER SOUTH/EAST...AT RDU/RWI...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN AS
A RA/SN OR RA/PL MIX...TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY 12-15Z...AND
REMAINING RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THE FAY TAF
SITE...EXPECT ALL RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES AT ANY TAF SITE...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE BY 15-18Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z SAT. W/REGARD TO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 45 KNOT EASTERLY FLOW AT
~2000 FT AGL BY 18-21Z...HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER IS FORECAST
TO BE PRESENT AT 500-1000 FT AGL...WITH ~25 KT EASTERLY FLOW IN THAT
LAYER. AS A RESULT...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MEET LLWS CRITERIA...
WITH MORE OF A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IN THE 1000-2000 FT
AGL LAYER.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AND OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. -VINCENT

&&

.HYDROLOGY /06Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATED AT 215 AM FRIDAY MORNING...

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 09Z SATURDAY...

STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALL RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (MOST FLOWS ARE >80TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). WE HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 2
WEEKS. MUCH OF OUR LAST PRECIPITATION EVENT WAS SNOW AND SLEET AND
RUNOFF WAS DELAYED DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES. MANY OF THESE STREAMS
AND RIVERS ARE STILL ON A RISING TREND.

THERE CONTINUED TO BE SNOW AND ICE COVER FROM RALEIGH NORTH AND
WEST... WITH UP TO 3 INCHES STILL ON THE GROUND IN ROXBORO... AND
1-2 INCHES IN FORSYTH COUNTY AS OF FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR FREEZING RAIN/RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO 32... THERE WILL BE RUNOFF PROBLEMS IF
THE RAIN BECOMES HEAVY ENOUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH SNOW/ICE ON
SATURATED GROUND SPELLS RAPID RUNOFF.

TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM
1.25 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST TO PERHAPS MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT...AND CONSEQUENTLY...HEAVIEST
RAIN...IS EXPECTED FROM 18Z TODAY TO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION.

IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXCEEDS 1.5 INCHES... MINOR TO PERHAPS
MODERATE MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WOULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE HAW AND ROCKY RIVERS... FOLLOWED BY FLOODING ON
THE NEUSE...CAPE FEAR...AND TAR RIVERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038>040.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...BADGETT/MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
409 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060915-
WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
409 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-060915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
409 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER SHOULD REPORT SNOWFALL AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ALSO APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
544 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

NCZ007-023>025-039>041-051245-
PERSON-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...
DURHAM...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH
544 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK...

LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A CHECK FROM AROUND THE
AREA BETWEEN 430 AND 500 AM THIS MORNING INDICATED THE
FOLLOWING...

...PERSON COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH ON THE
GROUND. THE ROADS WERE BECOMING SLICK.

...ORANGE COUNTY... VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS
REPORTED TO THE COMMUNICATIONS CENTER.

...ALAMANCE COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FALLING. A TRACE
ACCUMULATION REPORTED.

...DURHAM COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FALLING. A TRACE
REPORTED.

...RANDOLPH COUNTY... MOSTLY LIGHT SLEET FALLING... WAS SNOW
EARLIER. A TRACE OF SNOW IN ASHEBORO.

...WAKE COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COUNTY.
NO ACCUMULATION YET.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 64 THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM SILER CITY TO BURLINGTON TO HENDERSON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN BETWEEN 800 AM
AND 1000 AM... EXCEPT REMAINING FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
RALEIGH.

NCZ021-022-038-051245-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON
544 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING...

LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. A CHECK FROM AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING INDICATED THE FOLLOWING...

...FORSYTH COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH ABOUT AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IN WINSTON-SALEM. THE ROADS WERE BECOMING SLICK.

...DAVIDSON COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH A HALF TO ONE INCH
REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AROUND THOMASVILLE.

...GUILFORD COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FALLING. ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH REPORTED JUST WEST OF GREENSBORO. INTERSTATE 40 AND OTHER
ROADS WERE BECOMING SLICK.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 64 THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
800 AM AND 1000 AM.

BADGETT/VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

NCZ007-023>025-039>041-051245-
PERSON-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...
DURHAM...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH
639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH DAYBREAK...

LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A CHECK FROM AROUND THE
AREA BETWEEN 600 AND 630 AM THIS MORNING INDICATED THE
FOLLOWING...

...PERSON COUNTY... SNOW FALLING WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH REPORTED.
THE ROADS WERE BECOMING SLICK.

...ORANGE COUNTY... VERY LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS
REPORTED TO THE COMMUNICATIONS CENTER.

...DURHAM COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FALLING. A TRACE REPORTED.

...RANDOLPH COUNTY... MOSTLY LIGHT SLEET FALLING... WAS SNOW
EARLIER. A TRACE OF SNOW IN ASHEBORO.

...WAKE COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE AREA. RALEIGH HAD
A TRACE OF SLEET AND SNOW ON THE GROUND.

...HARNETT COUNTY... MOSTLY RAIN WAS FALLING WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET.

...JOHNSTON COUNTY... LIGHT SLEET WITH RAIN AT CLAYTON. TEMPS WERE
ABOVE FREEZING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 64 THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM SILER CITY TO BURLINGTON TO HENDERSON.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN
BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM... EXCEPT REMAINING FREEZING RAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF RALEIGH.

NCZ021-022-038-051245-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON
639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING...

LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. A CHECK FROM AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING INDICATED THE FOLLOWING...

...FORSYTH COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH AN INCH IN
WINSTON-SALEM. ROADS WERE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.

...DAVIDSON COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW FALLING WITH AN INCH REPORTED
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. ROADS WERE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND RAIN IN LEXINGTON.

...GUILFORD COUNTY... LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET FALLING. ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH REPORTED JUST WEST AND NORTH OF GREENSBORO. ONE HALF INCH OF
SNOW REPORTED IN GREENSBORO. INTERSTATE 40 AND OTHER ROADS WERE
SLICK.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 64 THROUGH DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM.

BADGETT/VINCENT