Tornado Warning 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

968 
WWUS52 KRAH 282316
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
716 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCC067-081-282324-
/O.CAN.KRAH.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100328T2330Z/
GUILFORD NC-FORSYTH NC-
716 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND NORTHERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WHILE THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WHICH HAS PRODUCED
TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE CHURCHLAND AREA IN DAVIDSON COUNTY IS 
MOVING ALONG THE SAME PATH. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN 
INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3624 7955 3624 7953 3620 7953 3600 8001
      3622 8012 3626 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 224DEG 39KT 3627 7984

$$

23

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WHICH HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOLLOW THE STORM ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/WESTERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING ENE. THE
LARGE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL ALL COMBINE FOR A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WARM FRONT PROGRESSED NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TRIANGLE
AND AREA SOUTH AND EAST...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA SINCE THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAS GENERALLY
BEEN IN A RAIN INDUCED WEDGE AIRMASS TODAY. THIS WEDGE AIRMASS WILL
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEREFORE A
THERMAL MOISTURE (WEDGE) BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AND ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SC
THIS EVENING AS STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT (80+ METER H5 FALLS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE (WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 125+ KNOT UPPER JET) COMBINE OVER THE
REGION. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AND TRACK NEAR CENTRAL NC.
MODELS SHOW A SQUALL LINE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...DEVELOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 30-35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES
AROUND 300 M2/S2) ALONG WITH LIMITED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 300-600
J/KG WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE...WINDS WILL BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NC...LEADING TO WIND PROFILES BECOMING EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN LACKING INGREDIENT
CONTINUES TO BE THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. WITH MODELS
PROGGING DEWPOINT VALUES TO RECOVER TO NEAR 60 DEGREES GENERALLY
FROM FAY TO GSB...CAPE VALUES OF 300 TO 600 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE RATHER DRY
PERIOD EXPERIENCED RECENTLY (PAST 2-3 WEEKS). THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS OVER 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR AND NEAR 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
QPF OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD BRING SOME
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES TO FLOOD PRONE AND URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE EXITING THE COASTAL SECTIONS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN AS LOW-LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED IMPRESSIVE (+30KT 0-1KM SHEAR) LOW-LEVEL
KINEMATIC WIND FIELD SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION(~500 J/KG)
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS
OVER THE AREA. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY. SHOWER COVERAGE
AND PROBABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WE COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS BEHIND THE EXITING CONVECTIVE
LINE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO AROUND 70 EAST. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT(COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHT)...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. ONE LAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS 60 TO 65. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MIDWEEK ON WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO AN EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A GOOD 30 TO 35 F DEGREE DIURNAL VARIATION WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. LOWS IN
THE 40S...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
HOW/WHEN THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AS SOME MIXING WAS ABLE TO OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
THESE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE (IFR TO LIFR CIGS) FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A 15-30KT SURFACE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

SHOWER CHANCES/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRR/BADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
345 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BECOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO
60 MPH WITH THIS LINE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. NIGHTTIME TORNADOES
ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. OVER EIGHTY PERCENT OF ALL TORNADO DEATHS
IN NORTH CAROLINA OCCUR AT NIGHT. BEFORE GOING TO BED...CHECK
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO READY TO ALERT YOU TO WARNINGS AT
NIGHT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE.

ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ021-038-282145-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
442 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH AND NORTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26
MILES WEST OF LEXINGTON...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF SALISBURY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... MIDWAY...
ARCADIA... WINSTON-SALEM... SEDGE GARDEN... LEXINGTON...
WALKERTOWN...AND...KERNERSVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS... AND LAWN FURNITURE.

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
533 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             WELCOME                 35.91N 80.25W
03/28/2010  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   PUBLIC

&&

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
551 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ021-022-038-282245-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
551 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALISBURY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEXINGTON...
WELCOME.... HIGH POINT... AND GREENSBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
AND HEAVY RAIN.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...AND LAWN FURNITURE.

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
606 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ022-282230-
GUILFORD-
606 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST GUILFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 606 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SUMMERFIELD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RURAL NORTHERN
GUILFORD COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS.

WSS