Tornado Warning 17, NWS Raleigh, NC

966 
WWUS52 KRAH 170037
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
837 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCC093-170045-
/O.CAN.KRAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100517T0115Z/
HOKE NC-
837 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HOKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF HOKE COUNTY. 
THUS... THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3484 7864 3495 7903 3503 7909 3510 7911
      3522 7863 3519 7864 3514 7863 3508 7867
      3500 7865 3497 7862 3491 7854 3485 7850
      3484 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 270DEG 20KT 3503 7900

$$

NCC051-170115-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100517T0115Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
837 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR
CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HOPE MILLS...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
A TORNADO.
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
OTHER DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BONNIE 
DOONE...VANDER...EASTOVER...CEDAR CREEK... AND STEDMAN.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SEE. DO
NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3484 7864 3495 7903 3503 7909 3510 7911
      3522 7863 3519 7864 3514 7863 3508 7867
      3500 7865 3497 7862 3491 7854 3485 7850
      3484 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 270DEG 20KT 3503 7900

$$

77

935 
WWUS52 KRAH 170047
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
847 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCC051-170057-
/O.CAN.KRAH.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100517T0115Z/
CUMBERLAND NC-
847 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE 
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3484 7864 3495 7903 3503 7909 3510 7911
      3522 7863 3519 7864 3514 7863 3508 7867
      3500 7865 3497 7862 3491 7854 3485 7850
      3484 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 267DEG 23KT 3504 7889

$$

77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING:
COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. OBSERVED DEWPOINT READING AND MSAS DERIVED LI FIELDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE TRUE AIR DENSITY CHANGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HOWEVER ALL THE
ACTIVITY(CONVECTION/CLOUDS)IS OCCURRING ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS PAST MORNING'S CONVECTION THAT SKIRTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER...LEAVING BEHIND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED
TO BROKEN IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THIS
LOW CLOUD COVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS
ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 IN SOME SPOTS. MEANWHILE...SOUTH OF THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INDUCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...STRONG HEATING
AS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S.

MODELS FOR THE MOST PART ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER...AND THIS MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF PUSH FROM THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WITH
THE FORMIDABLE 1022MB HIGH NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SLOW TO PULL OUT
TO SEA. INSTEAD IT LOOKS LIKE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL TRIGGER
CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY(TMB) THAT WILL
SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD...WHICH
IS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF US HWY 64...MAXIMIZED ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE CURTAILED BY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5.5C/KM)
AS THE INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD WITH LIFTING
WAVE...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7". DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL AS WELL WITH WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...FAVORING
A MULTICELLULAR MODE OF CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT.

TONIGHT:
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SET THE TABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAIN FALL EVENT. AS UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
US PROGRESSES EAST...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH ACCOMPANYING MINOR 30 METER H5 FALLS ALOFT. HOWEVER
A PAIR OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS:
ONE OVER CENTRAL TN WITH THE OTHER OVER EASTERN MS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT WITH AN ACCELERATION IN LOWER AND MID
LEVEL FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT OF 250-500 JOULES. THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR
LIFTING ALONG AND ATOP THE STALLED SFC FRONT AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH
THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING 200 TO 300 MS OF 0-3KM HELICITY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. WE WILL
HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR LOCALIZED BACKING OF WINDS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ANY MESO-LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...AS IT
COULD CERTAINLY TIGHTEN A CIRCULATION AND PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...PROVIDING THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. I BELIEVE THIS
WARRANTS A MENTION OF MENTION OF ISOLATED NIGHTTIME TORNADOES
POSSIBLE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO GO ALONG ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD SEE TRAINING
CELLS OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LOWS 62-68.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY (OVERVIEW AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES):
DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. 1010-1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ASSOC/W THE UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN TN/OH
VALLEY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/NAM SHOW A MILLER-B TYPE PATTERN...WITH A
PARENT LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY...A HYBRID CAD WEDGE OVER THE TYPICAL
AREA (CENTRAL/WESTERN VA INTO THE N/WEST NC PIEDMONT)...AND A
SECONDARY LOW PERHAPS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT DURING THE
DAY IN NC. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE FRONT ON MON. THE NAM HAS THE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO CHARLOTTE...EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
TRIANGLE AND ESE TOWARD HATTERAS BY 00Z TUE...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
THE WEDGE FRONT SAGGING WELL SOUTH THROUGH ALMOST ALL OR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC BY 00Z TUE. THE GFS SHOWS MSLP VALUES ~5 MB LOWER THAN
THE NAM OVER NORTHEAST NC BY 00Z TUE...IN ASSOC/W A WEAK LOW IN THAT
LOCATION...RESULTING IN ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW OVER VA...WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHY THE GFS SAGS THE WEDGE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM. AS A RESULT OF THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUITE CHALLENGING FOR MON...IN ADDITION TO THE
LOCATION/TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
NAM SOLUTION...SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN AGREE WELL WITH THE
MSLP PATTERN AND WEDGE FRONT PLACEMENT...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
AN OUTLIER. W/REGARD TO LIFT...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE RATHER
MARGINAL WITH NO MORE THAN 20-30 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS...LITTLE OR
NO FORCING FROM THE JET...AND NO SIGNIFICANT OR DISCERNIBLE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY (DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL BE IN THE OH VALLEY). HOWEVER...GIVEN AN
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWAT VALUES 1.75-2.00" OR ABOUT
200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...THERE WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE LOWER LEVEL FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
QPF ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CATEGORICAL (90%) POPS.

TEMPERATURES:
HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THAT THEY WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY...NOT TO MENTION
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
INTACT...WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH THE NAM'S PLACEMENT OF THE WEDGE
FRONT...SHOWING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
BUST-POTENTIAL W/REGARD TO HIGHS...BY AS MUCH AS 10F...DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

SEVERE THREAT:
W/REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
CENTRAL NC IN A 'SLIGHT RISK' ON MONDAY. GIVEN A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
WEDGE FRONT (WITH ASSOC BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED HELICITY)
PROGGED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC DURING PEAK HEATING...REASONABLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW (~25-30 KT AT H85)...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
~35 KT (PERHAPS HIGHER IN NORTH/NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA) AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE/LOW LCL'S...CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT FOR A FEW ROTATING
STORMS AND ISOLD TORNADOES MON AFT/EVE...PRIMARILY IN VICINITY OF
THE WEDGE FRONT. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR A SEVERE THREAT
APPEAR TO BE PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MOIST-ADIABATIC
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BOTH SERVE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY...IN ADDITION TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN
URBAN AREAS IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT:
THE WEDGE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH/SE ACROSS THE AREA
MON NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
EASTERN NC AND/OR SOUTHEAST VA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE IN
EAST/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WEDGE FRONT...WHERE
CATEGORICAL (80%) POPS WILL BE FORECAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST/NW...AND LOW LIKELY (60%) WILL BE
FORECAST IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES MAY DROP MARKEDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ONLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN THE WEDGE AIRMASS. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND
PRIMARILY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WILL SHOW
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 LOW IN THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY
EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST PA ON TUE...AND WEAK (ALBEIT STRONGER THAN
TODAY/MON) H5 HEIGHT FALLS (30-40 METERS) ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. IT REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT ON TUE. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTH THROUGH ALL OF
CENTRAL NC IN ASSOC/W A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...HOWEVER...THE
NAM ONLY LIFTS THE FRONT BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 64 SOCKED IN WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW STRATUS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH TEMP FCST ON TUE
IS PARTICULARLY PROBLEMATIC. AT THIS TIME WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S N/NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 80S SANDHILLS AND SE
COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS COULD BUST AGAIN BY AS MUCH AS 10F...DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES ON TUE LOOK MARGINAL...
WITH FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS. ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE GENERATES PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NC...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WILL INDICATE A
50% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER
SOUTH OF HWY 64. FOR TUE NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN ASSOC/W CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK H5 HEIGHT FALLS...WITH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHEAST OF
CENTRAL NC BY 12Z WED. EXPECT CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S N/NW TO NEAR 60F S/SE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

THE H5 LOW IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WED MORNING IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC BY THU MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THU/THU
NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES ON WED/THU...GIVEN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OR FORCING. EXPECT LOW PRECIP CHANCES
(SLIGHT CHANCE) TO BEGIN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ERODES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE AREA...WITH CHANCES
FURTHER INCREASING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT/SUN AS THE H5 LOW AND ASSOC
TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...WILL KEEP POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)...HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE H5 LOW LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...POPS WILL NEED TO
BE INCREASED INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE. EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

SFC FRONT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A
FOCAL POINT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR TO MVFR WITH ANY STORM...
BUT WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR/IFR
ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...TO TO IFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF LLWS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU AND KRWI AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AOA 2KFT
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KTS.

THE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE
AIRMASS BECOMES DEEPLY SATURATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE AIRMASS IS PROJECTED TO BE BECOME MORE STABLE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1208 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171615-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1208 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA... STARTING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDDAY AND
SPREADING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BY MID
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE... PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64... AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 2 PM AND 10 PM. VERY FREQUENT
TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE STORMS DURING THE LATE
EVENING. THEN LATER TONIGHT... AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO THE
PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT.

NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. OVER EIGHTY PERCENT
OF ALL TORNADO DEATHS IN NORTH CAROLINA OCCUR AT NIGHT. BEFORE
GOING TO BED...CHECK LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO READY TO ALERT
YOU TO WARNINGS AT NIGHT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE. IF STORMS
THREATEN... REMEMBER THESE SAFETY GUIDELINES:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE... PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH... AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ALSO... THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND MAY MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA... LEADING
TO HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS
RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ024-025-040-162145-
CHATHAM-DURHAM-ORANGE-
507 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ORANGE...WESTERN DURHAM
AND NORTHEAST CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 507 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BYNUM...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CARRBORO...CHAPEL
HILL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 7882 3575 7902 3577 7925 3607 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 190DEG 16KT 3582 7912

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ042-078-162215-
JOHNSTON-WAYNE-
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN JOHNSTON AND
WESTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FOUR OAKS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SMITHFIELD...PINE
LEVEL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 7804 3532 7811 3536 7851 3554 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 276DEG 12KT 3544 7838

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
610 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ074-075-084-162315-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-RICHMOND-
610 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN RICHMOND...MOORE
AND EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 609 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CANDOR TO COVINGTON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TROY TO 13 MILES
NORTH OF ROCKINGHAM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ELLERBE...NORMAN...
DERBY...ROBBINS...SEVEN LAKES...FOXFIRE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 7988 3510 7991 3537 7979 3551 7938
      3505 7944 3503 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 248DEG 14KT 3532 7972 3512 7981

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ042-043-078-162315-
JOHNSTON-WAYNE-WILSON-
616 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WILSON... EASTERN JOHNSTON
AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN JOHNSTON AND WAYNE
COUNTIES... MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... GOLDSBORO...
PRINCETON... FREMONT... LUCAMA... AND WILSON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7768 3557 7782 3542 7782 3540 7780
      3536 7780 3535 7782 3525 7783 3531 7841
      3576 7808 3574 7773 3569 7768 3567 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 199DEG 11KT 3548 7792

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ075-077-086-088-170015-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-HOKE-MOORE-
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNETT...
SOUTHERN MOORE... NORTHERN CUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 711 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PINEHURST...OR ABOUT OVER SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WHISPERING
PINES...VASS... ABERDEEN... PINEVIEW... AND TIMBERLAKE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 7953 3523 7958 3533 7923 3531 7918
      3536 7913 3538 7905 3512 7898 3506 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 257DEG 16KT 3517 7943

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ021-022-038-039-170115-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
820 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH FORSYTH...WESTERN
GUILFORD...NORTHERN DAVIDSON AND NORTHWEST RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH
915 PM EDT...

AT 817 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES WEST OF DONNAHA TO
21 MILES WEST OF CLEMMONS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES
WEST OF MOUNT AIRY TO 11 MILES WEST OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
TRIAD REGION AFTER 9 PM...MORE SO AFTER 930 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH
CANS...AND OTHER OUTDOOR OBJECTS. PEOPLE IN THE TRIAD REGION NEED TO
REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 11 PM.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8045 3626 8046 3625 7996 3620 7994
      3585 7989 3585 8039 3589 8041 3590 8037
      3594 8037 3604 8047 3604 8049 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 269DEG 13KT 3640 8097 3593 8073

WSS