Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
WARM AIR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM...

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOSTLY END MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS PERHAPS TO MIDNIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ROUGHLY 1500 TO
2000 AND TEMPERATURES LAPSE RATES ALOFT ONCE AGAIN NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC. STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND URBAN OR LOCALIZED RURAL FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT
IN ANY TRAINING ECHOS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS LOW STRATUS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE TRIAD AND ROXBORO AREA ON THE EDGE AND
PERHAPS ESCAPING LOW CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... WITH UPPER 60S PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST... AND NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S UNDER THE STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM...

THE 12Z GFS AND MESO NAM DEPICT A SHALLOW BUT SIGNIFICANT 850
MILLIBAR WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...
AND IS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE TROUGH MORE LIKELY MOVING NO
FURTHER EAST THAN HIGHWAY 220 AS MOST MODELS INDICATE. MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... REDUCING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK THERE. SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE MINIMAL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AGAIN LOOKS BEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD AND EXPECTING LOW
STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION MOSTLY ENDS
BY MID EVENING WITH SOME WEAK SHOWERS PERHAPS LASTING TO MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

A TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS... AS MID LEVEL WESTERLIES
ACCELERATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF A VORTEX OVER QUEBEC AND
SUBSEQUENT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED BELOW BRING ABOUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER... IN
GENERAL... EXPECT FAIRLY DAMP... MILD... AND TURBULENT WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... WITH QUIETER AND NOT AS WARM WEATHER FOR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...
BUT THEY DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO ITS REMNANTS.
THE GFS (WHICH HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) CONTINUES TO
BRING A FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH EFFECTIVELY PUSHES THE
WESTERLIES FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF... WHICH DAMPENS THIS
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND HENCE HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS DOES.
THE ECMWF DEAMPLIFIES THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD FOCUSES ON A STORM
SYSTEM BLASTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY WHICH IT THEN DEEPENS
OVER MI AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE
A BETTER TRACK RECORD IN RECENT MONTHS AND IT MAKES SENSE THAT A
STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WOULD DRIVE THIS PATTERN CHANGE.
EITHER WAY THOUGH... WE APPEAR LIKELY TO END UP WITH BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH
VARIATIONS ON HOW WE GET THERE AND WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL OF WHICH
MODEL'S SOLUTION IS MORE APT TO OCCUR... WILL HOLD ONTO ABOVE
NORMAL DIURNALLY TILTED POPS WITH LOW CHANCES EACH NIGHT/MORNING
AND HIGHER CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THOUGH THAT THIS REGIME FAVORS A TRACK OF UPSTREAM MIDWEST
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TOWARD THE ESE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
OR ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO BE ABLE TO
PINPOINT THE TIMING AND TRACK OF SUCH FEATURES... BUT WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST DIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY: THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN BRING THE "COLD" FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA SOMETIME MONDAY (TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE 6 TO 12 HRS)... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL DROP BACK
ON POPS AND BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DROP ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... AND WILL TREND CLOUDS
BACK UP A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM...

CONVECTION WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE SUNSHINE HAS
BEEN MOST ABUNDANT... AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH VISIBILITIES WELL BELOW ONE
MILE IN HEAVIEST RAINS. MOST CONVECTION ENDING SHORTLY AFTER DARK
WITH A FEW SHOWERS PERSISTING TO MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT... WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE VICINITY OF A
ROXBORO TO WINSTON-SALEM LINE. SOME MVFR FOG... THOUGH PERHAPS IFR
NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE. AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...
CLOUD CEILINGS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
PRIOR TO STRATUS FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IFR
CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TO A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. DRY MONDAY WITH MINIMAL CHANCE
FOR ANY SUNRISE STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-030845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
431 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY... THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ083-084-021730-
ANSON-RICHMOND-
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 74 CORRIDOR IN ANSON AND RICHMOND COUNTIES
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1251 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG THE HIGHWAY 74 CORRIDOR IN ANSON AND
RICHMOND COUNTIES...FROM PEACHLAND...TO WADESBORO...TO ROCKINGHAM.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 74
CORRIDOR THROUGH 130 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. HEAVY RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...
CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING
SPEEDS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING...A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 7977 3486 7977 3489 8016 3507 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 269DEG 9KT 3498 8006

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
103 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ088-021730-
CUMBERLAND-
103 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BONNIE DOONE...OR ABOUT OVER FORT BRAGG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...FAYETTEVILLE...
EASTOVER...AND LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 24 AND HIGHWAY 401 IN
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING...A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 7876 3506 7873 3504 7905 3519 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 262DEG 8KT 3511 7895

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
209 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ074-021915-
MONTGOMERY-
209 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTGOMERY COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 209 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
NORTH OF MOUNT GILEAD...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROY...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TROY...BISCOE...AND...
STAR.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8005 3540 8007 3547 7976 3535 7973
      3534 7972 3520 7970 3520 8006 3525 8009
      3529 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 254DEG 11KT 3531 8002

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ041-021945-
WAKE-
257 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WAKE COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW HILL...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NEW HILL...AND HOLLY
SPRINGS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 7862 3569 7861 3566 7861 3560 7860
      3558 7863 3556 7885 3560 7900 3574 7895
      3574 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 260DEG 9KT 3564 7898

VINCENT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>