River Flood Warning 19, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WHICH HAS LIFTED NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOLLOW THE STORM ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUNDAY...

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS CENTRAL NC IN A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE AREA AS A RESULT OF A 125+ KT JET CROSSING THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. AT 850MB...LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE STRETCHES SOUTH
CENTRAL VA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE CLT AREA. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS NEXT VORT MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND WILL LIFT E-NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AFTER 06Z.
FINALLY THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY IN WHICH TORNADIC CELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED WAS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE.

THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY WILL CAUSE STORMS TO DEVELOP
TO MULTI-CELLULAR LINES WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. DUE TO THE STRONG 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
(IN EXCESS OF 150M2/S2) OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS THE NEAR SURFACE
BOUNDARY ...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS SWEET SPOT
OF HELICITY SHIFTS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 06Z. THUS...EXPECT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SHIFT E-SE WITH TIME FROM THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
2 AM.

AM A BIT CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY SE. A SPOTTER NORTH OF GSO
REPORTED NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 830-930 PM. SINCE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE WITH TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT DO EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE EXITING THE COASTAL SECTIONS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN AS LOW-LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED IMPRESSIVE (+30KT 0-1KM SHEAR) LOW-LEVEL
KINEMATIC WIND FIELD SHIFTS OFFSHORE. A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION(~500 J/KG)
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS
OVER THE AREA. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY. SHOWER COVERAGE
AND PROBABILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP
AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WE COULD SEE SOME SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS BEHIND THE EXITING CONVECTIVE
LINE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO AROUND 70 EAST. MUCH COOLER
MONDAY NIGHT(COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHT)...DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. ONE LAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS 60 TO 65. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MIDWEEK ON WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO AN EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A GOOD 30 TO 35 F DEGREE DIURNAL VARIATION WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. LOWS IN
THE 40S...GRADUALLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
HOW/WHEN THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HANDLE THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AS SOME MIXING WAS ABLE TO OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
THESE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE (IFR TO LIFR CIGS) FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A 15-30KT SURFACE WIND FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

SHOWER CHANCES/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
MID/UPPER LOW. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA AND
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRR/BADGETT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1107 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ007>011-022>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1107 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...TORNADO WATCH 39 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE MAIN HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
TO 60 MPH WITH THIS LINE.

NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. OVER EIGHTY PERCENT
OF ALL TORNADO DEATHS IN NORTH CAROLINA OCCUR AT NIGHT. BEFORE
GOING TO BED...CHECK LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION. HAVING A NOAA WEATHER RADIO READY TO ALERT
YOU TO WARNINGS AT NIGHT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE.

ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ021-291000-
FORSYTH-
1107 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
759 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW HIGH POINT        35.99N 80.02W
03/28/2010                   GUILFORD           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GUILFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMED 20 STURDY
            HOMES DAMAGED NORTH OF HIGH POINT.

&&

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
837 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ021-038-290115-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
837 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH AND NORTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARCADIA...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WINSTON-SALEM...SEDGE
GARDEN...WALKERTOWN...AND...KERNERSVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
849 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TORNADO          4 NW HIGH POINT         36.02N 80.04W
03/28/2010                   FORSYTH            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED 3 INJURIES AND EXTENSIVE TREE
            DAMAGE AS WELL AS ROOFS RIPPED OFF OF SEVERAL BUILDINGS
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MILL ROAD AND SKEET CLUB
            ROAD IN HIGH POINT.

&&

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ007-290330-
PERSON-
1044 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1044 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF CONCORD...OR ABOUT OVER MILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD AND HYCO
LAKE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1107 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

NCZ007-022>025-039-040-290430-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-GUILFORD-ORANGE-PERSON-RANDOLPH-
1107 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON...GUILFORD...
ALAMANCE...ORANGE...DURHAM...RANDOLPH AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1105 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM AROUND UNION RIDGE TO SEAGROVE... MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH. LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BURLINGTON... SILER CITY... LIBERTY... AND ASHEBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1149 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW SUMMERFIELD       36.13N 79.92W
03/28/2010                   GUILFORD           NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON BRUSH CREEK AT MUIRFIELD
            ROAD IN GUILFORD COUNTY. THE LATEST STAGE WAS 9.98 FEET
            AND MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. THE CREEK ROSE THREE
            QUARTERS OF A FOOT IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

CARROLL