Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS COUPLED WITH PERTURBATIONS
ALOFT ROTATING AROUND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL
RESULT IN INTERVALS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY LIES
ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHERE 18Z MESO ANALYSIS
DEPICTS MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-35KTS RESIDE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD MIGRATE INTO AXIS OF MODERATELY
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THIS REGION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LEADING TO ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NE COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY DEEPENS
AND DRIFTS SWD. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL SHARPEN A 850-700MB TROUGH
RESIDING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHARPENING SHOULD ENHANCE LOW-MID
LEVEL CONFLUENCE...LIKELY LEADING TO THE DEVELOP OF A FEW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT. USED
A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS FOR MINS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER NE HALF DUE TO
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER VA. MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE
OF A VORT MAXIMUM ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED PVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOIST AND
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

THE BEST INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIE OVER THE
SW COUNTIES WHERE THE NAM-WRF SUGGEST MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
30-35KTS. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ABLE TO REACH
SUFFICIENT HEIGHT/STRENGTH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE...EXPECT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD
IN MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID 80S. THE QUESTIONABLE AREA IS
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM THE TRIAD TO SMITHFIELD.
IF CLOUDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN MAX
TEMPS MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THIS TIME FRAME... WITH EYES STILL ON A
POSSIBLE HYBRID LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR ZONE REMAINS IN THE REGION WITH THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING FROM AROUND BALTIMORE/DC SOUTH TO NC THEN SC THROUGH
MONDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS STEADILY LOWER WELL OFF THE SE COAST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS... WHICH RESULTS IN WEAKENING OF THE LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS AS IT BEGINS TO GET SHUNTED WESTWARD AS A
SE-TO-NW ORIENTED TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED
LOW AND A FLAT CLOSED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
PRODUCES AN ENHANCED EASTERLY STEERING FLOW INTO NC... ATOP THE
ALREADY PROMINENT STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC FETCH INTO
NC. WE SHOULD STILL SEE WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL/ERN NC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF NEW ENGLAND NOSING
NARROWLY DOWN INTO THE VA/NC FOOTHILLS... BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE
KEEP A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW INTO NC. AND WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THIS SOURCE REGION... SEE
NO REASON WHY WE WON'T SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... PARTICULAR EAST OF THE TRIAD. ALSO
SUPPORTING BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD IS THE CRAS MODEL
(AVAILABLE ONLINE FROM CIMSS) WHICH SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LONG
TROPICAL-SOURCE MOIST PLUME ADVECTING TOWARD NC ON MONDAY. CURRENT
BLENDED TOTAL PW IMAGERY REVEALS VALUES OF 1.7-2.2 INCHES OVER A
LARGE AREA NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS NORTH TOWARD
BERMUDA... SO GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES PUSHING WEST
INTO EASTERN NC IS QUITE REASONABLE. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
EVERYWHERE... HIGHER EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN HIGHER WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING AS THE WEAKENING COOL POOL ALOFT SHIFTS
WESTWARD. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROUGHLY DRY ADIABATIC
THERMAL STRUCTURE MONDAY LEADING TO JUST MARGINAL INSTABILITY... BUT
WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
MONDAY AFTERNOON... WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE CENTRAL/ERN
CWA. LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH NIGHTS... IN THE LOW-MID
60S WITH CLOUDS AND STEADY BREEZE INHIBITING COOLING. HAVE NUDGED
HIGHS DOWN A BIT TO 73-77 MONDAY BASED ON THICKNESSES AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND RAIN.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE SE-TO-NW
ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM 850 MB UP THROUGH
500 MB CONTINUING TO PIVOT TO THE WSW LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LULL IN PRECIP. WITH THIS BRIEF WANING OF THE
ALREADY MEAGER DYNAMIC FORCING... AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENING OVER NY/PA AND NOSING MORE STRONGLY SOUTH INTO NC
PROVIDING SOME DRYING... WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOW CHANCES THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THEN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE ROTATING WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AND THIS MOVING ONSHORE AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO
CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE EAST. WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A HYBRID TYPE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EAST OF SAVANNAH... AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM COUPLED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A STEADY ENE
BREEZE OVER THE ERN CWA BUT SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW LARGELY
DIFFLUENT OVER THE WRN CWA... LIMITING PRECIP HERE. THE WILDCARD IN
ALL OF THIS IS THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A DEEPER
AND MUCH MORE WESTERLY LOW (CLOSER TO THE NC COAST)... AND HENCE HAS
MUCH MORE PRECIP OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY... HOWEVER THIS MODEL
APPEARS TO NOW BE AN OUTLIER AS THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET ALL KEEP
THE SURFACE LOW WITH JUST A SLIGHT WEST DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
WEST TUESDAY... HEADING BACK TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 76-79. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: WE KEEP THE REX BLOCK REGIME
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HOLDING OVER
MI AND THE CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS NOTED ABOVE... THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG AND TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL LOW... BUT THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AS THE
CANADIAN AND THE LATER HOURS OF THE NAM SUPPORT A SOLUTION IN
BETWEEN. WILL FAVOR HOLDING THE HYBRID LOW OFF THE COAST FOR NOW...
BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
PARTICULARLY IF IT NEARS THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THE CANADIAN
SHOWS WEAK WAVES MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY... INDUCING LIFT OVER THE SRN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE IS BEST. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH
WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSED HIGH OVER MI DRIFTS JUST ENOUGH SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY TO PUSH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DOWN INTO NC... YIELDING
SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING. BUT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SHOW
THE LARGE POLAR VORTEX JUST OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST DIGGING AND
WOBBLING SOUTHWARD... WHICH PUSHES A SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH A PRECEDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AS WELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER MASS
CONVERGENCE. WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG WITH
THIS FRONT (AN ECMWF BIAS ACCORDING TO NCEP)... THE SURFACE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS FRONT IS SOURCED FROM NUNAVUT AND MAY
BE DENSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A STARK AIR MASS CONTRAST AND A STRONGER
FRONT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO HELP PUSH
THE OFFSHORE LOW FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND 80-85 THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: IN THE ENSUING LIGHT AND DIFFLUENT
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW... COOL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS WHICH SHOULD BRING A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER... WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. FRIDAY/SATURDAY... WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE RIDGE-RIDING WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NC WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE DAY
STORMS... INCLUDING STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOVING ESE INTO THE PIEDMONT. WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW...
WITH TEMPS PARALLELING THE NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES... HIGHS NEAR 80
TO THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MONDAY. THE INSTANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NC SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. POCKETS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHEN A LOBE ROTATES THROUGH CENTRAL NC AND
ENCOUNTERS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST PROMINENT DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...MAINLY FROM 2 PM TO 9
PM. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NEAR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ANTICIPATE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 KTS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR
QUARTERS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ASIDE FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR
CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE
CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM APPEARS TO BE BEST OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD REGION AS WELL AS
ALBEMARLE...TROY AND ROCKINGHAM. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AROUND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE 1 PM TO 9 PM. THE THREAT AREA WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GREENSBORO TO RALEIGH TO
GOLDSBORO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

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