Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 AM MST WED JAN 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...SNOW CONTINUES IN THE SAN JUANS...

MODERATE SNOW OVR THE SAN JUANS ATTM...AND WILL SEE SNOWFALL CONTINUE
THROUGH TH MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN
MTS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW TODAY...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SAN
JUANS SHOULD PICK UP 5-10 INCHES...JUST A 'WARM UP' FOR THE MAJOR
SNOW EVENT THU-FRI. RADAR ALSO HINTS AT SOME LIGHT BANDED ACTIVITY
MOVING THROUGH THE NRN SANGRES AND TELLER/N FREMONT COUNTY...AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORM CURRENTLY OVR SRN NM MOVES THRU CO
TODAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS 1-25 IN EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
START SHUTTING THINGS DOWN OVR THE WRN MTS. SIMILAR TO PATTERN ON
TUE...ANOTHER NRLY PUSH WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...AND COULD
RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OVR THE PALMER DVD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OR ISOLD POPS IN
PLACE FOR THE HYR TRRN THERE. SERN PLAINS WILL AGAIN REMAIN
DRY...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY...AS NRLY OR NERLY WINDS
FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST
PART...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG. WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING...AND LOW TO ZERO POPS MOST
PLACES. NEXT BIG STORM WILL START MOVING INTO THE SWRN ZONES THU
MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE MTS...AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAINLY THU THRU FRI.

THU-FRI NIGHT...A LONG WAVE TROF WL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST OR OVR THE
WRN STATES WITH COUPLE SHRTWV TROFS MOVING INTO THE CWA DURING THIS
PERIOD.  BY LATE FRI NIGHT THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE ROCKIES.
FAVORABLE SOUTH TO SW FLOW WL BRING ABUNDANT MSTR INTO THE SW MTS
THU THRU FRI NIGHT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FEET OF
SNOW OVR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS...AND POSSIBLY THE LA GARITA MTS.
SO WL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVR THE CENTRAL MTS WL PROBABLY LEAD TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN
SAWATCH MTS ABOVE 11000 FT (ZONE 60).  HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WL BE PERIODS WHEN THE SNOWFALL WL PROBABLY ONLY BE LIGHT.  THE BEST
PERIODS FOR ACCUMULATION IN ZONE 60 WL LIKELY BE THU AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON WHEN THERE WL BE BETTER
UPR DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. THIS AREA WL PROBABLY NEED AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...BUT WL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION
BASED ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL ALSO BE FOUND
OVR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT AND FRI AND WE
COULD SEE ENOUGH ACCUMULATION THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.  ONE
OTHER POSSIBLE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE VALLEY...COULD RESULT
IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA.  OVR THE SE
PLAINS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEA AND WARM...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD PCPN IN THE
AFTERNOON HRS.

BY SAT MORNING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM ABOUT WRN MT TO WRN KS...MOVING EAST THRU THE DAY...WITH
A LARGE CYCLONE CENTERED OVR ERN NE BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH THE
UPR FLOW OVR THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING WEST TO NW.  ALONG THE
CONTDVD THE MSTR LAYER DECREASES...AND THUS SNOWFALL SHOULD DECREASE
AND NOT BE AS HEAVY. THE WEST TO NW FLOW OVR THE SE PLAINS WL BRING
IN COOLER AND...AND WITH LITTLE MSTR OVR THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN.

SOME MSTR WL LINGER OVR THE AREA SUN AND IN THE NW FLOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW WL PROBABLY CONTINUE OVR THE CONTDVD AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF
THE ERN MTS.  AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR MON RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER ACRS THE CWA. THEN ON TUE AN NEW UPR TROF MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE
CONTDVD BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 H.
MODERATE SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS
MORNING...TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRASN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE OVER THE PALMER DVD...BUT ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ068.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ066>068.

&&

44/28

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