Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
320 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUB FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ATTM. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ATTM. AT THE
SFC...DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO KEEPING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ATTM.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MORNING SUNSHINE HAS HELPED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH LATEST
LAPS AND SPC ANALYSIS INDICATING MU CAPES OF BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH CAPES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BULK SHEARS OF 25 TO 35 KTS ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA STRONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
SOME CIN ALSO IN PLACE OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS ATTM. WITH THAT
SAID...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR
SE PLAINS WITH INCREASED UVV AHEAD OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WAVE.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN COLORADO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ALL CONVECTION DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WX THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
PENNY TO DIME SIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING FROM 08Z THROUGH 14Z.

SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPS ALOFT WARMING BEHIND EXITING TROUGH. WITH STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING AND WARMING ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW AFTERNOON HIGH
BASED CU BUILD UPS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEW PTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

PRIMARY LONGER TERM MET ISSUES INCLUDE POPS...TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS(MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AT TIMES AS NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTS CWFA.

A RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN SHOULD BE NOTED FROM
LATER MONDAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH THEN GIVES WAY TO A MORE
TRANQUIL PATTERN FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.

SOUTHERN COLORADO SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BRIEF-LIVED UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS REGION.

THEN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION AS OPEN UPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 00Z TUESDAY CLOSES OFF AND PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS UPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS CWFA EXPECT THAT SOME DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO AT LEAST EASTERN SECTIONS FROM LATER
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING(ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY).  IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALSO ANTICIPATE THAT SOME STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS FORECAST LIS DIP TO -6C...CAPES RISE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEARS UP TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES SHOULD
BE NOTED.

ALSO...HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONGER TERM SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURE READINGS ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SAVE
LOCALIZED MVFR IN SCATTERED TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
656 AM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-161300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
656 AM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.  ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH.  OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...THE MAIN
THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY 3 INCHES OR LESS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL UNDER 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

FOR MONDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AROUND PENNY
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL
UNDER 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO YIELD
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

28/13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
636 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             N CAMPO                 37.10N 102.58W
05/15/2010  M1.00 INCH       BACA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
638 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             CAMPO                   37.10N 102.58W
05/15/2010  M1.00 INCH       BACA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
653 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

COZ099-160130-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
653 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

AT 651 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMPO...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CAMPO.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

COZ099-160130-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
700 PM MDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

AT 656 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMPO...OR 30 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

THE STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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