Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
255 PM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED MONDAY.

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS IN THE MODELS OVR THE AREA
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE UPR RIDGE REMAIN CENTERED NR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA.  THE AVAILABLE MSTR OVR THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE
HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
EASTWARD AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I25 CORRIDOR AND PROBABLY A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST.  WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE SOME PCPN ACRS ALL OF THE
SERN PLAINS...THE LOCAL WRF KEEPS THE FAR SERN PLAINS DRY THIS
EVENING. FEEL THAT WITH CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 700 J/KG EXPECTED OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH RELATIVELY GOOD LOW LEVEL MSTR.  THERE IS A SFC BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA OVR FAR ERN CO AND DEWPOINTS BEHIND THAT ARE
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN OVR OUR AREA.  IF THAT BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...CAPE VALUES WOULD END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN WHAT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE...AND THE SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE
HIGHER. WL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD POPS ACRS ALL THE SERN PLAINS. IT
LOOKS LIKE PCPN CHANCES SHOULD END BY 06Z...SO WL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST AND THE MON MORNING FORECAST DRY.

MID LEVEL TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH 19-23 DEG C AT H7...AND WE WL THUS SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.  AFTERNOON TEMPS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS WL
ALL BE RIGHT AROUND RECORD HIGHS. RECORDS FOR MON ARE...KCOS
97...KPUB 104...KALS 92. FOR MON AFTERNOON THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA
DRY...WHILE THE NAM12 SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LATER START TO THE CONVECTION
AND GENERALLY KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE I25 CORRIDOR AND
WESTWARD...SO I WL GO WITH ISOLD POPS IN THESE AREAS AND WL KEEP
POPS OUT OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH
BASED WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /28

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

...MONSOON TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE A GRADUAL RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME
HEAT...AS THE MONSOON STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS THE FRONT ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...REACHING
THE PALMER DVD BY NOON ON TUE. THIS COULD SPELL AN END TO THE RECORD
HEAT...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NRN ZONES ON TUE. HAVE CUT BACK A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TEMP ON TUE...THOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CRUCIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THE FRONT ALSO SIGNALS
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW...AS A TROUGH BUILDS OVR
THE W COAST AND THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HAS
THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A DECENT MOIST
PLUME OVR THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. BEST POPS LOOK TO BE ON THU-
THU NIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MOS TYPICALLY OVERESTIMATES HIGH TEMPS DURING THE
MONSOON...SO HAVE ALSO CAUTIOUSLY GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR DAILY
HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AT THE TAF
SITES.  SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE I25 CORRIDOR
AND WESTWARD ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MON AFTERNOON WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /28

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

28/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
646 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-191300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
646 AM MDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL THREATS WILL BE HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HAIL
UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND LIGHTNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THESE DAYS. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
ON TUESDAY WITH HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 100 PM MDT.

77/31

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