Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Pueblo, CO

578 
WWUS55 KPUB 152157
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

COC041-152245-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-100715T2245Z/
EL PASO CO-
357 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 356 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF PEYTON...OR 26 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CALHAN AND RAMAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3910 10450 3913 10446 3913 10405 3912 10404
      3892 10404 3902 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 272DEG 13KT 3910 10442
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

508 
WWUS55 KPUB 152211
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
411 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

COC041-152220-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-100715T2245Z/
EL PASO CO-
411 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR NORTHEAST EL PASO COUNTY HAS 
ENDED FOR NOW. 

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM AS A SEVERE STORM WAS NOTED IN 
THIS REGION AT 410 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3910 10450 3913 10446 3913 10405 3912 10404
      3892 10404 3902 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 272DEG 13KT 3910 10436

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
226 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DESERT SW IS
EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING VERY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
ALOFT...SAVE ALONG WITH COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH CURRENT DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 80S...WITH DEW PTS
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS
ATTM. REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING CU BUILDING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS
ATTM.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CURRENT AND PROGGED CAPES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ARE BETWEEN 1500-3000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND COMBINED WITH 20-25KT
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW SUPER CELLS
WITH BULK SHEARS BETWEEN 30-40KTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS (LXV AND LAKE GEORGE RAWS DEW
PTS MIXED FROM MID 40S AND MID 50S TO THE LOWER 20S AND MID 30S FROM
16Z TO 18Z) AND WITH NO EVIDENT SHORT WAVE TO HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION...WILL NEED RELAY ON SOLAR HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WHICH WITH THE
MORNING CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE MAY NOT BE
MET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID AND
CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS...SHOULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS...WITH STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN HELPING TO
FIRE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ALL STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE SUN AND
WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD CLEARING FROM SEE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN COLORADO ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 16C
AND 20C...WARMEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH THE
WARMING ALOFT AND STRONG MID JULY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING
BACK INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THERE HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND FAR SE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH
SOLAR HEATING...WITH PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SE MTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH CAPES VALUES PROGGED BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG.
ANY CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WILL BE HIGHER BASED...WITH MORE WIND THAN
RAINFALL EXPECTED. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR NERN AZ THRU SUN...THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD MON AND TUE...BECOMING CENTERED OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
TUE. SO FOR SAT AND SUN THE FLOW ALOFT OVR THE CWA WL BE NWRLY
WITH A FEW SHRTWV TROFS MOVING OVR THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING BY NERN
CO AND RE-ENFORCING THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE SERN
PLAINS. THERE WL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA SAT AND SUN TO
SEE SOME ISOLD PCPN DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVR AND NR THE MTS. WITH
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD NEXT WEEK AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE
PAC NW...THE FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA WL BECOME SWRLY. BEGINNING
LATE MON IT LOOKS LIKE A PLUME OF MSTR WL BE STREAMING ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU. THE AVAILABLE MSTR IN ADDITION TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OCNL SHRTWV TROFS MOVING THRU THE FLOW OVR THE
AREA...SHOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY. HIGHS OVR THE
SERN PLAINS WL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 104.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS...WITH A SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH
COS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND FAR SE PLAINS. -MW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-161300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
650 AM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS COULD EVEN A SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WILL BE
MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MEANS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED(ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS) FROM LATER MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS FROM LATER MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 200 PM MDT TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

COZ074-088-152100-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000
FT-TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
237 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 233 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEGUNDO...OR 17 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...
WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CERU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             1 NNE PEYTON            39.04N 104.47W
07/15/2010  M0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCERU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
313 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             1 N PEYTON              39.04N 104.48W
07/15/2010  E1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            ON MURPHY ROAD 1 MILE NORTH OF PEYTON VIA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             1 S PEYTON              39.02N 104.48W
07/15/2010  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

&&

JCERU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             6 SE PEYTON             38.95N 104.41W
07/15/2010  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCERU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 PM MDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             6 NNW ELLICOTT          38.93N 104.43W
07/15/2010  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCERU