Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)

GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH FUEL TO SPARK CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING GUSTY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS AND THE I 25 CORRIDOR. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE AS THERE IS DRIER AIR ALOFT.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH IS ALSO CREATING A BOUNDARY FORMING
BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE. ONCE THESE STORMS MOVE
INTO THE DRIER AIR THEY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. EXPECT ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
AROUND 06Z...WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
STRONG BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISPERSE BY 06Z.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND ALLOW FOR
A SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.  EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE KEPT POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF I 25
CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.   THE COLD FRONT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
DROP TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE IN THE 50S TO 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MOIST AIR SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG THE TROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

MODELS STILL HAVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST SOLUTION BUT TRENDING
TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION WITH THE 18Z RUN. THE NAM
SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY 18Z WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50S CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SOLUTION
GENERATES THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES...WILL BE IN
PLACE. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY FAR THE MAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS SOLUTION PRODUCES ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A HEAVY CONVECTIVE FLARE UP
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THAT WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS WELL
WITH THE ECMWF FOLLOWING THE GFS AND SREF MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM. DETAILS OF WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WILL HAVE TO BE
IRONED OUT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STAY TUNED...

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW
HOWEVER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL HELP PRODUCE
LOCALLY  HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT COLORADO
UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTH THESE DISTURBANCES
MAKE IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE NICE FOR JULY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE BACK IN THE 90S FOR THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND.
MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TODAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED
TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR KCOS AND WEST OF KPUB THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST AROUND 06Z AT KCOS AND
KPUB...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND GUSTY AT BOTH SITES BY 07Z
WED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/88

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