Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
258 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...NEED TO WATCH CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
THIS EVENING...

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...VISIBLE IN
SATELLITE PICTURES RUNNING FROM KLVS TO KTCC TO KBGD TO VICINITY OF
KDDC.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY OVER THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
STORMS TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AT 30-35 MPH. STORMS NEAR
MAXWELL NM...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF RATON HAVE BEEN ROTATING.  WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THESE AND SEE IF THEY CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AT ALL AS
THEY GET FARTHER NORTH OVER THE COOL...STABLE SURFACE AIR OVER THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.  A COUPLE STORMS EARLIER TODAY THAT TRACKED
RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS TELLER COUNTY WERE ALSO ROTATING.  THEY
CONTINUED TO ROTATE AS THEY TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE FRONT RANGE.  THE RADAR IDENTIFIED A MESO AT ONE
POINT.  OTHER STORMS ARE NOW SHOWING UP OVER THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES...TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTH...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO LATER ON.  SO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
WATCHFUL EYE ON THINGS THIS EVENING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD
TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE NORTH INTO THE COOL...STABLE
AIRMASS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  BUT...STRONG SHEAR MAY BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN BRIEF SPINNING STORMS AS THEY CROSS THE COLORADO BORDER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR TOMORROW...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL AND PRETTY STABLE
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...A NARROW BAND OF CAPE AND
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT A LOT OF CAPE INDICATED (500 J/KG) WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COOL AIRMASS.  BUT...SINCE THE AIR IS SO COOL...THIS AMOUNT OF CAPE
COULD EASILY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL (GENERALLY DIME SIZE OR
LESS).  ALSO...THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS FARTHER EAST
TENDING TO BE TOO STABLE.  HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES
WILL SEE AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERE
WEATHER...AS THIS AREA DESTABILIZES LATER IN THE DAY.  WILL CONTINUE
TO ASSESS WITH LATER MODEL RUNS THIS EVENING.

ON A FINAL NOTE...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.  ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT...WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS BUT WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

...WARMING BACK UP NEXT WEEK...

AS AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS SUN NI AND
MON...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH...AND
BRINGS A RETURN OF SE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
OUR AREA IN A COOLER AIR MASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM...BUT
HINTED AT A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR FOR AREAS S OF THE
ARKANSAS. BEST POPS REMAIN SUN EVE...TAPERING OFF TO THE S
OVERNIGHT. BY MON...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HYR TRRN.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUE...WITH THE
THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVR THE PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR AVG VALUES. MOISTURE IS
SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS DRY SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM. BOTH GFS AND WC ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NE THROUGH
WY...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR CWA IN DRY W TO SW FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE AVG...AND ONLY ISOLD SHWRS/TS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THU AND FRI SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAYS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THU COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS. IN GENERAL...THE DRYLINE SHOULD STAY E OF OUR AREA...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CO/KS BORDER COUNTIES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

50/44

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