Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
229 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

...MAIN CONCERNS IS SVR ALL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND SVR
   POSSIBLY EXTREME SE CORNER TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...

AS OF 1 PM...ATMOS OVER REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS 1000-2000
J/KG IS NOTED OVER THE REGION PER SPC MESO PAGE. DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50
KNOTS ALSO NOTED. TSRA IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
CI FROM CB/S CAN BE OBSERVED RACING OFF TO THE NE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE...HRRR INDICATES STORMS SHOULD FIRE OVER THE
WETS AND THEN MOVE NE. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE PP REGION
AND ALSO MOVE OVER THE PALMER. GIVEN THE CAPE AND SHEAR STORMS WILL
BECOME SVR WITHIN 1/2 TO 1 HOUR OF INITIATION.

BASED ON LATEST SIMULATIONS...LLVL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TOWARDS 00Z AND AS THE STORMS MOVE FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS THE TOR
THREAT WILL INCREASE.

SVR THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE. HOWEVER WITH APPROACHING
LARGE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST AND INCREASING DEEP UPSLOPE...PRECIP
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND C MTNS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL GET TO FREEZING GENERALLY ABOVE 12000 FEET AND WE
WILL SEE A COUPLE/FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE FAR SE PLAINS. SIMULATIONS ARE SHOWING
SOME INSTABILITY THIS REGION AS THE SFC LOW SETS UP OVER FAR NE NEW
MEXICO. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...IF STORMS CAN
GET GOING THEY WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. SPC HAS THE FAR SE REGION IN
SLIGHT RISK.

OTHERWISE...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW WILL BE OVER THE GREATER
PIKES PEAK REGION AND C MTNS REGION AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. EXPECT GENERALLY CLOUDS SKIES OVER THE REGION
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES...50S AND 60S...MOST OF PLAINS...EXCEPT SE
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F.

SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THIS
REGION WILL LIKELY BE DRY SLOTTED. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
DIFFERENCES ARISE BY MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG WAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS COLORADO
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER EXCEPT FOR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR 3C BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 10 KFT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW
SPLITS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAKER TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY INTO UPPER 70S FOR MONDAY.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RIDGE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF REMAINS LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE GFS WITH WARMER
WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

KCOS WILL BE HIGHLY IMPACTED FROM THIS EVENT. TSRA...SOME STRONG TO
SVR...COULD AFFECT THE AERODROME SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE SITE FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA.
LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...HOWEVER THUNDER
THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND WILL NOT BE STRONG.

KPUB...COULD SEE STRONG TO SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AFTER 07Z LASTING INTO MID
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW LIKELY BUT SHOULD BE ABOVE 3 KFT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLD WEAK THUNDER LIKELY TOMORROW.

KALS...GENERALLY DRY WITH ISOLD TSRA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

34/88

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             3 N PEYTON              39.08N 104.48W
06/11/2010  M1.25 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCERU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
537 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     HAIL             ROCKY FORD              38.05N 103.72W
06/11/2010  M1.00 INCH       OTERO              CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
540 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.89N 104.80W
06/11/2010  E0.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STARTED AT 533 PM

&&

KMOZLEY

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