River Flood Warning 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS RED FLAG POTENTIAL IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
IT'LL BE CLOSE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE VALLEY WILL EDGE INTO RED
FLAG CRITERIA AROUND 2 PM MDT...AND THEN OUT OF CRITERIA BY 8 PM
MDT.  IT MAY NOT BE A BLOCKBUSTER EVENT...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL LIKELY HIT 25 MPH OR
MORE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS IN THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT LAST
REPORT...FUELS WERE STILL CRITICAL SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

THE COLD FRONT THAT BLASTED THROUGH LAST EVENING WILL RESULT IN A
GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  GENERALLY NOT A BIG THREAT
TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY...ZONAL UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR
(35-40 KTS)...AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG PROGGED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A
SLIGHT RISK. MEANTIME...DRY AIR...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...AND DRY
FUELS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME...THE WINDS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO
WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

TUESDAY...LOOKS TO BE INTERESTING ACROSS THE FAR EAST COUNTIES.  THE
DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BORDER DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO KANSAS BY MIDAFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
WARM...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND DRY.  IF FUELS ARE STILL CRITICAL
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
COLORADO IN THE MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM12 IS SHOWING
SOME CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...BULK SHEARS OF 40-45 KTS...BUT SOME CIN
AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND PLAINS COUNTIES.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
ISOLATED POPS IN THAT AREA.

THURSDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. KEPT SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. WEST PART OF THE CWA SEES LITTLE CHANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
80S HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE
ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN FORMING ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
EVENING.  CLOUD BASES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING IN THE 6000 TO 8000 FOOT
AGL RANGE EXCEPT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LIKE AROUND AKRON...WHERE
A FEW HITS AROUND 1300 FEET AGL HAVING BEEN SHOWING UP THIS
MORNING.  ALSO...KTAD HAS REPORTED 4200 FEET AGL. GENERALLY VFR
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EASTERN SLOPE MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS MORNING...LIKE AT KVTP...WHERE CIGS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO
OVC001 DUE TO UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS 08011G21KT.  ALSO...ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD BRING A SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITION LATER IN THE DAY. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
659 AM MDT SUN MAY 30 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-311300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
659 AM MDT SUN MAY 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IF ANY STORMS DO FORM...THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY...WHERE A
COMBINATION OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR
MORE...AND DRY FUELS COULD RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE
STARTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FOR MONDAY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL LARGER THAN
QUARTER SIZE...WINDS TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WHERE A COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY BELOW 15
PERCENT...WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE...AND DRY FUELS COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE STARTS.

FOR TUESDAY...ONE OR TWO STORMS ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS COULD BE QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...WINDS TO 60 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE IS ALSO THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHERE A COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY BELOW 15
PERCENT...WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE...AND DRY FUELS COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IF A FIRE STARTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AGAIN
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

50/13