Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Pueblo, CO

406 
WWUS85 KPUB 202028
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
228 PM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220
THROUGH 232...WHICH INCLUDES THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE SAN JUAN
AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PIKES PEAK AND EL PASO...PUEBLO...EASTERN
HUERFANO...WESTERN LAS ANIMAS...CROWLEY...AND OTERO
COUNTIES...FROM 2 PM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. THIS RED FLAG
WARNING IS FOR DRY LIGHTNING...


.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO...IN COORDINATION WITH
AREA LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
DRY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THIS RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE DISTRICT IN THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADJACENT PLAINS AS WELL. GIVEN THE DRY FUELS AND LACK OF
RAINFALL...FIRE STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM DRY
LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ARLINGTON
TO LA JUNTA TO TRINIDAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DROPPED TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO LA
JUNTA...AND LIGHTNING IGNITIONS MAY BE MORE EFFICIENT IN THIS
REGION. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO RAPID RATES OF
FIRE SPREAD. 


COZ228>232-210300-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-100921T0300Z/
PUEBLO COUNTY-HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
CROWLEY COUNTY-OTERO COUNTY-
228 PM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
228...229...230...231 AND 232...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 228...229...230...231 AND 
  232. 

* DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY CLOUD TO GROUND 
  LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

COZ220>227-210300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-100921T0300Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
SAN LUIS VALLEY-SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-
228 PM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 220...221...222...223...224...225...226 AND 227...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...
  224...225...226 AND 227. 

* DRY LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
  ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY CLOUD TO GROUND 
  LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

818 
WWUS85 KPUB 210244
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
844 PM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE 
BEGUN TO INCREASE WHILE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...THEREFORE
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

COZ220>232-210345-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-100921T0300Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
SAN LUIS VALLEY-SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-
SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY-HUERFANO COUNTY-
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-CROWLEY COUNTY-OTERO COUNTY-
844 PM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...
224...225...226 AND 227...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING.

THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE 
BEGUN TO INCREASE WHILE SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...THEREFORE
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 AM MDT MON SEP 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MAIN CONCERN IS FIRE WX (DRY LIGHTNING)

CURRENTLY...

AS OF 3 AM...WELL DEFINED LEE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AREAS GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM KLHX TO KTAD WERE QUITE
WARM...TEMPS IN THE 70S...AND IT WAS QUITE BREEZY...WINDS GUSTING TO
~30 MPH. OTHERWISE...SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

WAT VAP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD 500
MB TROUGH WHICH IS APPROACHING THE REGION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS CG LIGHTNING AND THE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS AND
GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION. IT HAS NOT RAINED IN THE HIGHER TRRN IN
QUITE A WHILE. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS TODAY IN THE MTNS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ON THE DRY SIDE. FOR
THIS REGION WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY
LIGHTNING FOR ALL OF THE MTNS/VALLEYS AND GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
FROM MID AFTERNOON TODAY UNTIL MID EVENING.

BOTH NAM AND LOCAL WRF SHOW A BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW
MTNS AOA 21Z AND THEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH QPF NOTED WITH STORMS...BUT
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CG ACTIVITY WITH STORMS. SINCE IT
HAS BEEN SO DRY IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET FIRES STARTED.
WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR FIRE WX...BUT IT IS THE
LIGHTNING I AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT REGARDING THE RED FLAG
HIGHLITES.

OVER THE PLAINS TODAY IT WILL BE WINDY....MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM
KLHX TO KTAD. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON. ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE WINDY...RH VALUES OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...WITH
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25%.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AND PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. ENOUGH FORCING
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO GET ISOLD STORMS OVER THE
PLAINS. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

...WEDNESDAY PROMISES SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN...

MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WED
INTO THU MORNING AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES THRU THE NRN ROCKIES.
LATEST NCEP GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE EARLIER EURO RUNS
THAT AMPLIFY THE SYSTEM NOW TAKING SHAPE S OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE
N PACIFIC. THIS WILL START BRINGING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION ON TUE...WITH LOW GRADE POPS OVR THE SRN ZONES. ON WED
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GRT BASIN...AND A GOOD PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SWRN MTNS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NR
LIKELY FOR THE DVD LATE WED. PLAINS ALSO SEE A RESPECTABLE SHOT OF
SOME MOISTURE WED EVENING AS THE BEST QG FORCING CROSSES THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD EVEN SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVR THE
PALMER DVD OR PLAINS N OF HGHWY 50...WITH CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND BULK SHEARS AROUND 40 KTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THU
MORN AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE DVD AND MOVES ON TO THE GRT
PLAINS. SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...BUT COULD SEE A DUSTING
OF SNOW OVR THE HIGHER PEAKS BY THU MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN AND DESERT SW REBUILDS STRONGLY
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON THU. THU AND FRI LOOK MAINLY DRY...BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE...PARTICULARLY
OVR THE SRN ZONES. GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY WILL BE. LATEST
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND WHILE THE EC STILL
PROGS A CLOSED LOW JUST E OF OUR CWA...IT IS FARTHER E THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH A FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ERN CO OVR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE IMPACT MAY BE MINIMAL PRECIP-WISE IF MOST
RECENT PROGS VERIFY. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR KALS...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY TODAY. WEST TO SW
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND WILL LAST
INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED...AND IF THE STORM
GOES OVER THE AIRPORT...MUCH STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TSRA
WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF FCST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER 02Z.

FOR KCOS..EXPECT MAINLY S TO SW WINDS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
BE TOO STRONG BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KNTS CANT BE RULED OUT.
FRONT WILL CROSS REGION AOA 00Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A WNW
COMPONENT. WILL LIKELY GET GUSTY AFTER FROPA. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
POSSIBLE.

FOR KPUB...SIMILAR TO KCOS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND FROPA...BUT
TSRA CHANCES MUCH LESS. \/HODANISH

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.

&&

34/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
659 PM MDT SUN SEP 19 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-210100-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
659 PM MDT SUN SEP 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.