Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS EVENING AS A VERY
MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STRONG... POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS LIKELY
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS A SECOND LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND TOWARD ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO DROP AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING NICELY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT TONIGHT WILL INDEED BE RATHER ACTIVE.
VERY MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW EXISTS OVER ARIZONA WITH
PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 60S AT 2 PM...AND WITH CLOUDS THINNING IN THE
LATE MORNING...ENOUGH SUNSHINE HAS BEEN RECEIVED TO START THE
ATMOSPHERE PERCOLATING. ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM THE CO RIVER EAST INTO SRN GILA COUNTY...AND THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOW MOVERS...GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT. DYNAMICS
SHOULD NOT BE THE MAJOR PLAYER TONIGHT...AS THE ONLY INVERTED TROF
OF SIGNIFICANCE IS STILL OVER FAR SERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL...THERE MAY BE SOME DEFORMATION/DIFLUENCE ALOFT THIS EVENING
AND THAT COULD AID IN THE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

SO...WITH DYNAMICS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE. THERE MAY BE ISOLD
WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE MOIST SOUNDING
PROFILES...SHOULD BE HARD TO GET 60 PLUS MPH WINDS OUT OF THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT
OUTFLOWS AND COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF
NEW CONVECTION AS THE DAY AND EVENING WEAR ON. FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR POPS IN THE 50-60 PCT RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND CHANCE POPS OVER SWRN AZ. POPS SHOULD BE
GENLY 10 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS SERN CA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE
STABLE.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL BE REMAIN UNDER A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE MONSOONAL FLOW...WITH STEERING FLOW GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
ACROSS THE ARIZONA PORTION OF THE CWA. PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES...850MB DEWPOINTS WILL EXCEED 14C...AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S. DYNAMICS WILL BE TOUGHER
TO PIN DOWN...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE STILL IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THE INVERTED TROF TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE UP AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...BUT WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND DECREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...A HIGH GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WILL
BE IN EFFECT NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...AND SLIGHT
CHANCES INTO SERN CA. WILL SHOW A DECREASING TEMP TREND WITH HIGHS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY. IN FACT...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S
OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LATEST GFS/ECWMF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOMEWHAT OF A DRYING TREND
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE DRYING LOOKS TO BE A BIT DELAYED AS COMPARED TO
EARLIER MODEL RUNS...WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. ALSO...GFS CALLS FOR A SECOND
INVERTED TROF TO PASS SLOWLY BY TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...THEN
SWING NORTH INTO SWRN AZ/SERN CA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO
IT WILL WEAKEN WITH MOISTURE SLATED TO THIN. AS SUCH...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND CALLED FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS PRETTY MUCH FROM THE CO RIVER EASTWARD...AND CHANCES OVER
ZONE 24. WITH MOISTURE THINNING...AND HEIGHTS RISING...A WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...
STILL ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOME TIME BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE DELAYED A BIT DUE TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...BUT WHERE
THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS OF 1745Z.
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH
SITES...BUT KEPT BLDU OUT OF TAFS BECAUSE IT SHOULD BE RATHER
LOCALIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IT WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF SITES.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH LIKE THEY DID THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 11-12Z FRIDAY. WEST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SWING
EAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW AND FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHEASTERN CA...INCLUDING KIPL...KBLH AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...
EXPECT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS COULD MOVE ACROSS BOTH SITES LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT BE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE FOR AVIATION
PURPOSES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED.
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP CHANCES BECOMING
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
GOOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...PADDOCK
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
548 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

AZZ022>024-027-028-301300-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
548 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO...GLOBE-MIAMI...GILA BEND...AND CASA GRANDE AREAS.

STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA...FAR
NORTH AND EAST MARICOPA...AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...
INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AS WELL AS STRONG...POSSIBLY
DAMAGING...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
INCREASE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY MOIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MEANING LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND REMAIN RATHER LOW
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES AT TYPICAL WARM
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-301300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
548 AM MST THU JUL 29 2010 /548 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OUT OF SONORA INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE MONDAY AND REMAIN VERY LOW
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES AT TYPICAL WARM
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE YUMA...EL CENTRO
...AND BLYTHE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
403 PM MST THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             E GLENDALE              33.58N 112.20W
07/29/2010  E0.25 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCATION 67 AVE AND PEORIA. REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL. WIND
            GUST 53 MPH.

&&

RRICKEY

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