Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...THE W COAST UPPER TROF HAS SPLIT AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS DOMINATING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS ALLOWING
MONSOON MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN...AND WILL
CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY. TSTMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CEN
MTNS THIS AFTN...WHILE ANOTHER BAND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS FROM UT WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. WITH A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS BOTH TODAY AND
FRI. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENTIRELY. BY
SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
MONSOON MOISTURE...THUS DECREASING TSTM COVERAGE. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THRU MIDWEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLD MTN TSTMS EXPECTED BY TUE.
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A LITTLE FROM SUNDAY THRU THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR KBYI AND KPIH ESPECIALLY HAVE
INCREASED IN CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AND SO HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO
GROUPS THERE WITH PROBABILITY REACHING NEAR 50 PERCENT.  ALSO...AREA
OF UNSTABLE MOIST AIR HAS REACHED KSUN AND THUS EXPECT -TSRA THERE
AS WELL.  NEAR -TSRA WIND WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE BUT NOT MUCH
MOMENTUM TO WORK WITH ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE -TSRA OUTFLOW.  CEILING
EXPECTED TO STAY MID-LEVEL OR HIGHER.  VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
UNRESTRICTED.  MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO.  AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  WILL CONTINUE
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS.  PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.  SOME DRYING MAY
DEVELOP AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY AFTER SAT. SO RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.  NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING BELOW 5500 FEET FOR LIGHTNING IN IDFWZ209-210-212.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY BELOW 5500 FEET
FOR LIGHTNING IN IDFWZ209-210-212.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
321 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-060930-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
321 AM MDT THU AUG 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAKES A
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO IDAHO. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 209-210-212 BELOW 5500 FEET DUE TO
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THEREFORE A RED WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 209-210-212 BELOW 5500 FEET DUE TO
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM ON FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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