Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
141 PM MDT FRI JUL 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL PUSH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND DROP THE
TEMPERATURE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN NEXT WEEK. GFS
AND EUROPEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE REGION...CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. KBYI AND KSUN WILL BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY TAF SITES AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OUTSIDE
OF THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY SUNDAY AND SET UP A BREEZY DAY...GUSTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AND RH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FOR THE ARCO DESERT
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...THE AIR IS STILL QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES
409 AND 412 THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHTING STRIKES ALREADY OBSERVED
NEAR RICHFIELD. SUSPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS ARCO THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHTNING MAY ONLY BE ISOLATED AND
NOT QUITE MERITING INCLUSION OF THE UPPER PLAIN IN THE WARNING.
SECOND...THERE IS SOME FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IN NEVADA TO SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY BETWEEN DIETRICH AND ATOMIC CITY. THOUGHT AT
THE MOMENT IS IT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THUNDER AND LIGHTNING AS
WELL. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
934 AM MDT FRI JUL 30 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-311200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
934 AM MDT FRI JUL 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EVENING. SMALL HAIL...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO BOIRFWPIH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FOR SATURDAY...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS STAYING WITH US
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.