Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON AND INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS EVENING. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. SOME
STORMS COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE
REGION. THE NAM HAS HAD MORE COVERAGE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
EXPLAINS WHY THE GFS MAX TEMPS ARE SO MUCH WARMER THAN THE NAM
GUIDANCE. THE 12Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF OF THE COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY
AND LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE SUPPORTED
THE GFS SOLUTIONS...NOT SO MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SINCE THE
NAM HAS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION AND SHOULD
DISPLACE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHEN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
RETURNS. LATEST RUNS SUPPORT MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ONLY
BEEN CLOSE TO SUN WITH NOTHING MUCH IN BYI...PIH AND IDA AREAS.
WILL KEEP VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM
LOCAL TIME TONIGHT.  SHOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY A WELL.  GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAIN
AVIATION HAZARD TODAY.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO.  A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN ZONES
409...410...AND 412 DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ALL ZONES
WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-019>023-032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
703 AM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-291315-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
703 AM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
621 PM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW MINIDOKA           42.82N 113.57W
07/28/2010  M61 MPH          MINIDOKA           ID   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 61 MPH

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
623 PM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             8 WNW NEELEY            42.79N 113.01W
07/28/2010  E0.25 INCH       POWER              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
631 PM MDT WED JUL 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             7 NW AMERICAN FALLS     42.85N 112.95W
07/28/2010  E0.50 INCH       POWER              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL

&&

DPHELPS

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