Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT TUE JUL 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION TODAY. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY. AWAITING THE NEXT BIG
PUSH OF MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH. NAM AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LARGE BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE HANGING AROUND...ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING UNTIL THEN. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE MOISTURE COULD GET SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO UTAH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HOWEVER
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST
POTENTIAL ALONG THE MT BORDER...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
NEAR BYI AND PIH AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  WIND GUSTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 50 MPH. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS...MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  BIGGER ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE MOVE
OVER THE AREA.  EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING IN WESTERN
ZONES AND SPREAD ACROSS REMAINING AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-019>023-032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
717 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-281330-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
717 AM MDT TUE JUL 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. GUSTY WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS. RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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