Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...SITTING ON THE EDGE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS A 700MB TROUGH INTO THIS AREA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEVADA AND
TRACKING TOWARDS IDAHO FALLS AND DRIGGS. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE 00-06Z. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CHALLIS AND AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WAS THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TOO DRY? SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME EVIDENCE OF A
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING NEAR WENDOVER. SATELLITE DERIVED LIS FROM
BURLEY TO ISLAND PARK ARE DEFINITELY DESTABILIZING AND THE SURFACE
HEATING UP WITH LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE BIT DRIER BUT STILL DEVELOPS CONVECTION IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
THIS EVENING. WILL KNOW IN A FEW HOURS. MESO SCALE DISCUSSION JUST
ISSUED FROM SPC SUPPORTS CONTINUED VIGILANCE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
12Z NAM SUPPORTED STRONG DOWN DRAFT WINDS NEAR SEVERE 50-60 MPH
RANGE.

THE NAM STILL FAVORS CONVECTION IN THE SNAKE PLAIN EVEN THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HERE.
THE GFS IS AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH GUIDANCE SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND COULD BE AN
OUTLIER. OTHERWISE...A MORE ZONAL AND DRIER PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MAYBE AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE THE AREA THIS EVENING.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE KSUN AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SCATTERED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY STRONG GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
539 AM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

IDZ017>025-031-032-011145-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
539 AM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
433 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

IDZ025-302330-
BEAR LAKE ID-FRANKLIN ID-
433 PM MDT WED JUN 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  BEAR LAKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 530 PM MDT

AT 424 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON..MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   ST. CHARLES...

LAT...LON 4199 11115 4200 11171 4245 11131 4226 11104
      4205 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 222DEG 31KT 4183 11170

HUSTON