Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

330 
WWUS41 KPHI 082051
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...YET ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.AN EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOPING NOR/EASTER WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH
OF OUR AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-091100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.100209T2100Z-100211T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0005.100209T2100Z-100211T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
351 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST TONIGHT WILL HEAD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THAT LOW WILL GIVE UP ITS ENERGY TO
A COASTAL STORM...WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING... THIS NOR/EASTER IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STRONGLY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND LIKELY BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO A GOOD
PART OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT
TIMES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS MORE 
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST. BUT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
STORM EVEN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 18
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR IN TWO BURSTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE BY
THE MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SHOT WILL BE AN EVEN
MORE INTENSE BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
ITSELF THAT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA, MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WEDNESDAY CONTINUES AND WILL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW, EVEN MORE THAN WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE WEEKEND SNOW STORM. AT AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC SHORE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS INCREASE.
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

DEZ003-004-NJZ023>025-091100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0003.100209T2100Z-100211T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
351 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST TONIGHT WILL HEAD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THAT LOW WILL GIVE UP ITS ENERGY TO
A COASTAL STORM...WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING... THIS NOR/EASTER IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSIFYING
STRONGLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AND LIKELY BRINGING HEAVY
SNOW TO A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY
START OUT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY...AND EVEN CHANGE
TO RAIN AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE STORM EVEN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL FARTHER TO THE WEST. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$


DELISI/GIGI

613 
WWUS41 KPHI 090830
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...YET ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FROM LATE
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.AN EXPLOSIVELY DEVELOPING NOR/EASTER WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO
MUCH OF OUR AREA STARTING LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DEZ003-004-NJZ023>025-092100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0003.100209T2100Z-100211T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0024.100209T2100Z-100210T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.WS.W.0005.100210T1200Z-100211T0500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPES IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LOW WILL GIVE UP
ITS ENERGY TO A COASTAL STORM...WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS NOR/EASTER IS FORECAST TO BE
INTENSIFYING STRONGLY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING HEAVY SNOW TO A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY
START OUT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUISANCE AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND SNOW INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS
MAY CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. BUT...AS WARMER ARRIVES FROM THE
OCEAN...THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO
RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT...AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS AROUND THE STORM EVEN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW.

4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...AND THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW...EVEN MORE THAN WHAT OCCURRED WITH THE WEEKEND SNOW STORM.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-092100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.100209T2100Z-100211T0500Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
HEAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LOW WILL GIVE UP
ITS ENERGY TO A COASTAL STORM...WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THIS NOR/EASTER IS FORECAST TO BE
INTENSIFYING STRONGLY JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING HEAVY SNOW TO A GOOD PART OF OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95 THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES
TONIGHT...AND WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. BUT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE STORM EVEN THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 18
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND MUCH OF
NEW JERSEY. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN TWO BURSTS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT WITH FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND SHOT WILL BE AN EVEN MORE INTENSE BURST OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ITSELF THAT SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA...MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL END BY MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WEDNESDAY CONTINUES AND WILL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...EVEN MORE THAN WHAT
OCCURRED WITH THE WEEKEND SNOW STORM. AT AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SHORE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS INCREASE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
SLEET ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE.
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...AND
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW LAKE EFFECT PLUMES LOOK TO THREATEN OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME STRATOCUMULUS DID MAKE IT INTO SUSSEX AND MONROE
EARLIER LAST NIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING DOES REACH THIS FAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING, IT IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TODAY WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS OUR
AREA IS UNDER A DECENT GRADIENT TODAY, WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHWEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY DID MAKE IT UP TO MOS FORECASTS FOR MOST SPOTS...SO
WITH ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES, THE
MOS NUMBERS WERE ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIG STORY COMING UP IS THE NEXT STRONG WINTER STORM...POSSIBLY
AS BIG AS FRIDAY NIGHT/S AND SATURDAY/S...EXCEPT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND WITH
THE DECREASING GRADIENT AND EVENTUAL DECOUPLING...WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. AGAIN, FOR MINIMUMS, LOWER WAS
THOUGHT TO BE BETTER REGARDING TEMPERATURES, AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS OVER SNOW COVER WILL BE EXTANT AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

THE 00Z GFS AND THE ECMWF WERE VERY SIMILAR ON TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS GOES DEEPER WITH THE LOW A BIT FASTER. DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY IS SEEN TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND GENS
UP A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE STRONG UPPER CLOSED LOW
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND CAUSES AN ENERGY TRANSFER TO THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIED WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH
DEEPENING, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES
AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS, OR PERHAPS BLIZZARD WARNINGS AGAIN. FOR NOW,
A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OUR AREAS STARTING LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON /21Z/ AND CONTINUED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING /02Z
THURSDAY/. HPC WWD NUMBERS UP TO 2 FEET ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY, BUT FOR NOW WE USED A STARTING POINT OF 14 TO 18 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

REGARDING SOUTHERN AREAS, THERE HAS BEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY IN
BRINGING IN WARMER AIR ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/S
THICKNESS PATTERN SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE AND LIKELY, AND THAT
DICTATED A START WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION, THEN PERHAPS MIXING TO
WARMER PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME RAIN NEAR THE SUSSEX DELAWARE
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COASTS, BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN
AND CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW. WITH SUCH A SCENARIO
WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO START DOWN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, IT
WAS DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND JUST KEEP ONE WATCH GROUP WITH
THE SAME TIMING.

WITH THE LOW REACHING UP TO THE OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTY NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE WEDNESDAY MORNING, STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
SHOULD BE HIGHER FURTHER NORTH THAN THE LAST STORM. THE LOWEST SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT STILL WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA...WERE OVER SUSSEX
DELAWARE, AND THEN SHADED UPWARD TO THEIR MAXIMUMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. DETAILS...INCLUDING PLACEMENT OF THE BAND OR
AREA OF MAXIMUM SNOW...WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS.

THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR OUR AREA.
SIMPLE CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ARGUE THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE OVER
OUR AREA AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AND WE QUITE
POSSIBLY WILL BE DEALING WITH A RAIN/SNOW LINE THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE
TO DEAL WITH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT ALSO LOOKS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL FEEL MORE OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.  THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS FROM LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

====================================================================

           PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
         THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)

====================================================================
STATION      2IN      4IN      6IN      9IN     12IN
====================================================================

MPO          >95      >95       95       85       65
ABE          >95      >95       95       85       65
PHL          >95      >95      >95       90       75
ACY          >95      >95       90       80       60
GED           70       50       25       10        5

====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.

STATION IDENTIFIERS:

MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - ATLANTIC CITY, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ROLLS AROUND, THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE
COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING OUT AND WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS FALLING AT THAT TIME WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

NOT ONLY WERE POPS INCREASED WEDNESDAY BY THE SHORT TERM FORECASTER,
THEY WERE ALSO INCREASED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT FURTHER APPEARS
THAT THE COMMA HEAD PART OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS, IF NOT ALL, OF THE CWA.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY ON THURSDAY TO END THE
SNOW, WINDS COULD STILL BE GUSTY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY KEEPING THE
REGION DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
VFR CONDS WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY ARE EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE W AND PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD ON TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WAS FCST TO DEVELOP ALG THE GLFMEX CST TO MOVE
N AND EWD.  AS THIS MAIN STORM REACHES THE OH VLY, A SECOND, AND
MORE POWERFUL STORM WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE NC CST.  THIS
STORM THEN GENLY MOVES NWD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES NR THE DELMARVA
OR NJ CSTS AND THEN MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SOME WINTER WX IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND ANOTHER HIGH IMPACT EVENT SEEMS IN THE CARDS.  HOWEVER, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ALL SNOW ARE FOR KRDG AND KABE.  FOR THE KACY AND KMIV,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MIXED PRECIP AND POSSIBLY EVEN JUST SOME
PLAIN RAIN EARLY ON.  AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WHICH SHOULD CHANGE EVERYONE BACK TO SNOW.  THE MAIN QUESTION THEN
INVOLVES P-TYPE ACRS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY SNOW, BUT SOME MIXED PRECIP CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  THE COMPUTER
MDLS ARE DIFFERING ON THIS EVENTUALITY.  REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS AND IFR SEEMS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE.  THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS WAKE, BUT CONDS SHOULD SLOWLY
RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.  THE SEAS CONTINUE TO
SETTLE DOWN AS THE WINDS HAVE COME DOWN, BUT THE ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS
HOWEVER ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. A
STORM IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, SOME OF
THE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, WHICH INCLUDES THE WIND FIELD, TIMING
AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING GALE FORCE  AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO MOST IF NOT ALL
OF OUR MARINE AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY AS WELL.  ATTM, IT SEEMS AS IF WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE AND
HAVE GONE A BIT HIGHER.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS DOWN
DURING FRIDAY WITH A DIMINISHING WIND.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE
SOME TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES.  EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, THINGS ARE JUST
FCST TO BE GETTING GOING SO THERE DON'T LOOK TO BE ANY ISSUES WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE ATTM.  THE ONLY PLACES THAT BEARS WATCHING IS
LEWES AS THEY MAY BE CLOSE (BEING THAT THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LOW).
THE AFTN HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY, IS LOWER THAN THE MORNING SO THAT
SHOULD BE SAFE AS WELL.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL CSTL LOCATIONS APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA.  WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM AND SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI /
NEAR TERM... / DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI /
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...NIERENBERG
MARINE...NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-090845-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
339 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH
WINTRY WEATHER LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-090845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
339 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-090845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
339 AM EST MON FEB 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.