Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND STALL OVER THE
DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER
UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LATEST COLD FRONT THAT WILL OFFER MINIMAL RELIEF FROM THE
ONGOING HEAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AND IT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. THERE IS SOMETHING OF AN UPPER JET AND A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX THAT ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH. THERE IS FAIR SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM /FORECAST TO BE
BETTER NORTHWEST THAN SOUTHEAST/, MODERATE INSTABILITY /FORECAST
TO BE BETTER SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST/, AND A RATHER MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRONG, WET
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WE HAVE ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING
AND RAISED THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE. WE ALSO
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

WITH SOME MID AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF
THE ACTIVITY AND WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE, WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE
MARGINALLY COOLER STAT GUIDANCE TODAY. THIS STILL HAS TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA REACHING 90 DEGREES, AND WITH THE HUMIDITY
THE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE
LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY. IT WILL AGAIN BE UNCOMFORTABLE, BUT NOT
SUFFICIENTLY SO TO ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE ONGOING ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW, WE
EXPECT AT LEAST ONE OTHER WEAKENING FRONT TO MAKE A RUN AT US AND
AT LEAST ONE OTHER IMPULSE TO MOVE ALONG THE GENERAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE SET UP BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
THE CANADIAN VORTEX TO THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RIGHT
NOW, WE ARE CENTERING THIS AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. SO, AFTER SOME
LINGERING EARLY POPS TONIGHT, WE DROP POPS LATE TONIGHT AND
REINTRODUCE THEM BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE CARRY FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY, THIS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY.

DAYTIME MAXES ON TUESDAY ON WEDNESDAY SHOW A MODEST OVERALL TREND
DOWNWARD, AS DO DEW POINTS. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
NIGHTTIME MINS IN THIS SOUPY REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SUMMER PATTERN WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING. THE STORM TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GUIDE
WEAK SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. ONE STRONGER
WAVE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND AND PASS ACROSS SRN CANADA.
THESE FEATURES...COMBINED WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80 TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY
DURING THE STRETCH WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND MID
90S IN THE URBANIZED AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST...SO COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK VORTICITY TROUGH MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND SOME DYING SHOWERS BRIEFLY
THREATENED KILG AND KMIV BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE AT THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES...IN
ANTICIPATION OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACTIVITY OVER THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG OR
EVEN REACH SEVERE LEVELS...GIVEN THE DECENT CAPES AND HIGH
INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY LIFTED INDICES NEAR MINUS 6 ON THE NAM
FOUS BY 00Z. SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT OUR TAF SITES IN AN AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY BUT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL
THE FRONT AND MODEST UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THIS EVENING...BUT SOME
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MARGINAL VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND
HAZE.

OUTLOOK...
VERY GOOD AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF
THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR AREA AND MAY
PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION...UNTIL A FINAL
LOW MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WATERS. WAVEWATCH HAS BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE RESULTANT WAVES FOR TODAY HOWEVER...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
CONTINUE TO CAP SEAS AT 4 FEET. IF WAVES REACH 5 FEET FOR A TIME
LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING...THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER
RESOLVE THIS ISSUE. THE APPROACHING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY AND
THEN OSCILLATE OVER OR NEAR OUR MARINE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME...
HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN-FREE ON OUR WATERS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES...PERHAPS PASSING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...O'HARA
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
309 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>022-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
067>071-200900-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
309 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ALSO ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ023>025-200900-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
309 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY GENERATE GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ450-451-200900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
309 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING ALSO ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-200900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
309 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY GENERATE GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
746 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ015>018-PAZ067>071-191245-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
MERCER NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
746 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...CAMDEN...CECIL...
CHESTER...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...MERCER...MONTGOMERY...NEW CASTLE...
PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 743 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES EAST OF
READING TO 26 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THORNDALE AROUND 745 AM...SPRING MOUNT
HARLEYSVILLE AROUND 800 AM...HATFIELD...CHALFONT AROUND 815
AM...DOYLESTOWN...NEW HOPE AROUND 830 AM...NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA
AND PENNS GROVE AROUND 845 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3978 7607 4035 7561 4033 7535 4043 7549
      4061 7522 4053 7507 4042 7506 4040 7497
      4031 7491 4029 7470 4020 7477 4014 7473
      3999 7507 3991 7499 3962 7549 3962 7557
      3969 7552 3962 7560 3961 7615 3969 7623

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
819 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

NJZ015-019-PAZ067>069-071-191315-
BUCKS PA-CHESTER PA-MERCER NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-
819 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CHESTER...
MERCER...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

AT 817 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR EAST NORRITON...BLUE BELL
AROUND 830 AM...MAPLE GLEN...HORSHAM AROUND 845 AM...HATBORO...
WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AROUND 900 AM...LANGHORNE AND LANGHORN AROUND 915
AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4033 7474 4006 7472 4007 7549 4024 7551

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-027-PAZ067-070-071-191345-
CAMDEN NJ-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
847 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CHESTER...
DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...NEW CASTLE...PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM
COUNTIES...

AT 843 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF WILMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR VILLAGE GREEN-GREEN RIDGE...
LINWOOD AROUND 845 AM...PARKSIDE...BROOKHAVEN AROUND 900 AM...
PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...NATIONAL PARK AROUND 915 AM...
MARLTON...AUDUBON AROUND 930 AM...MEDFORD AND MEDFORD LAKES AROUND
945 AM.

AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS
STORM. THIS MUCH RAIN COULD CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY
FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4005 7474 3978 7470 3976 7558 3994 7561

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016-017-191415-
CECIL MD-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
914 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CECIL...GLOUCESTER...NEW CASTLE
AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 910 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF ELKTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR BEAR...STANTON AROUND 930 AM...NEW
CASTLE...WILMINGTON MANOR AROUND 945 AM...CARNEYS POINT...PENNS GROVE
AROUND 1000 AM AND SWEDESBORO AROUND 1015 AM.

AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THIS
STORM. THIS MUCH RAIN COULD CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY
FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3969 7592 3981 7532 3965 7526 3952 7584

HAYES

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