Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRY AND HOT
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ARE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
FROM MARYLAND NEWD INTO PA AND DE AND EVENTUALLY NJ. SOME OF THE
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, BUT A STEADY RAIN WILL RESULT IN MANY AREAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AT LEAST. THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN WRN PA, BUT WITH THE NEWD MOTION, THAT MAY END UP
STAYING TO OUR WEST.

SYNOPTICALLY, WE ARE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN H5 TROF
POSITIONED TO OUR W. SEVERAL VORTS AND A SFC LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MEAN TROF AS IT PUSHES EWD THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE LIKELY UNTIL THE VORTS AND LONG
WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH. THE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY
AROUND 14/18Z, THE TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION AND CONDS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

WITH THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR AND MORE
POSSIBLE, THE FFA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNCHANGED. IT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME IF HEAVY PRECIP STILL LINGERS LATER
THIS AM. RNFL AMTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE PSBL TODAY, BUT THOSE
AREAS THAT GET HIT MORE THAN ONCE OR BY A STRONGER STORM COULD SEE
AMTS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THAT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, THERE IS A 10 DEGREE DIFF BTWN THE MET AND MAV
GUID. THE MAIN QUESTION HERE IS HOW MUCH INSOLATION WE WILL GET.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z.
EVEN A FEW HOURS OF AFTN SUNSHINE WILL MAKE TEMPS RISE. HOWEVER,
IF A MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLN PANS OUT THEN LOWER TEMPS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC SOLN, SO WILL SPLIT
THE DIFF AND SHADE TWD THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY AND HOT CONDS ARE IN
STORE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TONIGHT'S MDL
RUNS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON MAX TEMPS THAN PREV CYCLES. WITH
ADDED UNCERTAINTY AND A BUSY RADAR SCOPE THIS MORNING, WILL KEEP
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AS IS. IF THE COOLER TEMPS PAN OUT, WE
MAY NOT EVEN NEED ANY HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE CURRENT
FCSTS OF TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE FRIDAY, BUT
WOULD FALL SHORT ON THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW AND CROSSES THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS
TO KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN. IF THE ANSWER IS NO, THEN WE WILL LIKELY
BE CLOSE TO NEEDING HEAT PRODUCTS AGAIN. LEFT SOME SLIGHT POPS
INTO SUNDAY UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. THEN WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SYS APPROACHES
FROM THE S FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NRML
THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT THROUGH 14Z WED...VFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
AND HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING.

WE ARE AWARE OF TTN OBSERVED WX PROBLEM.

THE 12Z/13 NAM MOS WAS THE USUALLY MORE PESSIMISTIC PARTNER TO THE
GFS MOS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS OVERNIGHT.

WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD...WITH WINDS MAINLY FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT...AND WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
HIGHER AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
ABOUT ONE FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECAST CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA WATERS SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>019.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...HAYES
MARINE...HAYES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-140800-
CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CUMBERLAND NJ-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-
NEW CASTLE DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-TALBOT MD-
258 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...CECIL...CUMBERLAND...
KENT...NEW CASTLE...QUEEN ANNE'S...SALEM...SUSSEX AND TALBOT
COUNTIES...

AT 257 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CENTERVILLE TO 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CENTERVILLE TO 19 MILES WEST OF
GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR CHESTERTOWN...SANDTOWN AROUND 315 AM...KENNEDYVILLE...MORGNEC
AROUND 330 AM...CECILTON...CAYOTS AROUND 345 AM...CHAMBERSVILLE AND
BIG STONE BEACH AROUND 400 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3865 7572 3869 7582 3887 7585 3906 7624
      3916 7629 3959 7577 3949 7558 3934 7546
      3937 7542 3948 7555 3935 7528 3929 7526
      3937 7541 3934 7545 3924 7538 3907 7539
      3888 7525 3855 7571

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

DEZ003-004-NJZ021-023-024-140800-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-
300 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 257 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MILTON...LEWES AROUND 315 AM...NORTH CAPE
MAY...CAPE MAY POINT AROUND 345 AM...VILLAS AND GREEN CREEK AROUND
400 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3858 7533 3870 7550 3891 7528 3880 7516
      3879 7511 3891 7498 3899 7498 3911 7490
      3916 7492 3918 7500 3921 7497 3905 7474
      3895 7484 3891 7498 3881 7508 3878 7506

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

DEZ001-002-MDZ015-NJZ016-017-021>023-140830-
ATLANTIC NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT DE-
NEW CASTLE DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-SALEM NJ-
323 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...
CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...KENT...NEW CASTLE...QUEEN ANNE'S AND SALEM
COUNTIES...

AT 317 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR DOVER BASE HOUSING...LITTLE
CREEK AROUND 330 AM...GREENWICH AROUND 345 AM...NEWPORT...LAUREL LAKE
AROUND 400 AM...CUMBERLAND AND SOUTH VINELAND AROUND 415 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3893 7547 3923 7577 3938 7551 3927 7541
      3930 7533 3934 7534 3933 7537 3941 7546
      3961 7511 3931 7476 3918 7501 3920 7507
      3917 7514 3920 7519 3923 7518 3929 7527
      3930 7533 3927 7540 3909 7540 3901 7532

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

NJZ007>010-140845-
HUNTERDON NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-WARREN NJ-
349 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...MORRIS...SOMERSET
AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 346 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF MORRISTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MENDHAM...SUCCASUNNA AROUND 400
AM...MORRIS PLAINS...VICTORY GARDENS AROUND 415 AM...MOUNTAIN
LAKES...BOONTON AROUND 430 AM...LINCOLN PARK AND PEQUANNOCK TOWNSHIP
AROUND 445 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4089 7433 4087 7433 4086 7431 4078 7436
      4067 7472 4083 7483 4103 7442 4101 7439
      4101 7432 4097 7427 4092 7428 4089 7427

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

PAZ054-055-060>062-140845-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
352 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BERKS...CARBON...LEHIGH...MONROE
AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 346 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR NEW TRIPOLI...JORDAN VALLEY
AROUND 400 AM...EMERALD...SLATINGTON AROUND 415 AM...BOWMANSTOWN...
PARRYVILLE AROUND 430 AM...BELTZVILLE STATE PARK AND PENN FOREST
RESERVOIR AROUND 445 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4093 7534 4055 7573 4065 7593 4068 7591
      4074 7578 4078 7584 4107 7564

HAYES

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