Special Marine Warning 62, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
457 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND
PENNSYLVANIA ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND REACH THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
THE NORTHEAST USA THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
OUR AREA. WE HAVE ADDED HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES TO THE
WATCH...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE A SHARP CUTOFF TO EXPECTED ACTIVITY VICINITY ABE-NEL
LINE IS STILL CONFIRMED BY THE 18Z NAM.

ONCE THE LEAD LINE ENTERING NW NJ ATTM MOVES THRU THIS
EVENING...THE SECOND LINE IN W NYS SHOULD NOT AFFECT US.

THEN ITS CLEARING AND BLENDED 12Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

WE DO SEE SOME MOISTURE IN SE PA AND S NJ POOLED ALOFT TWD DAWN TUE
BUT BAD TIMING FOR CONVECTION AND MAYBE JUST PATCHY CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIURNAL FAIR WX SC EACH AFTERNOON BOTH TUE AND WED.

THERE IS AN IMPULSE THAT COULD PRODUCE SPRINKLES IN OUR AREA
ACROSS SW PA N DEL AND NE MD EARLY WED BUT FOR NOW DID NOT PLAY
THIS UP EXCEPT VIA CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE THIS PORTION OF THE FCST IS BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS
GUIDANCE.

WINDS: WNW GUST AROUND 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

WED MAY SEE A SEABREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...ESP 12Z OPERATIONAL
GFS/ECMWF. USED A 50 POP FROM THE 12Z GFS MEX GUIDANCE. CLOUDS
DEFINITELY INCREASE. TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. THIS LOOKS
LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM WITH A DECENT SPREAD OF BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS FAST AND ACTIVE...AND THIS WILL MAKE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTS MORE DIFFICULT THAN USUAL. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES WAS BASED MAINLY ON
THE ECMWF.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH NEAR 1.75 INCHES (BASED ON THE 1200
UTC GFS)...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. NOT SURE IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

IT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRY TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OHIO. FOR
NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FONT...BUT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN...AND THIS MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDRESSED LATER. A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

RIGHT NOW...THAT TIME PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOWER LEVELS DO NOT COOL OFF MUCH...AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 14 CELSIUS. THAT AIRMASS REMAINS
PLACES INTO SUNDAY...WHEN MOISTURE AGAIN INCREASES ON THE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. THE 1200 UTC GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.35 INCHES.

WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW DROPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS DISTANCE...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR ADDING THUNDER...SO IT WILL BE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT...THE FORECAST AREA GOES
INTO A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR 7 DEGREES CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE
INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY...BUT IF THE PATTERN BEARS OUT...SHOWERS MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT
AND SCT CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FURTHER
NORTH NEAR NY/NJ STATE LIKE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO W OR NW
BEHIND THE FEATURE AND MAY RAMP UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. TUE...AFTER SUNRISE MIXING SHOULD CREATE
GOOD MIXING AND NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
NEXT CHC OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WATERS TODAY...AND WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP NORTH...IT SHOULD STAY THAT WAY. AS
OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON THE WINDS ON THE WATERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
THEY WILL SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO S OR SW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT/SHORT WAVE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OR W ONCE THE
FEATURE PASSES LATER TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TUE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

CONTINUED BELOW SCA CRITERIA SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE NEXT CHC FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
WILL BE THU WHEN A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...DRAG/HAYES
AVIATION...O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

PAZ054-055-062-132230-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
528 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARBON...SOUTHERN MONROE AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT POCONO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR GILBERT...ROSSLAND
AROUND 545 PM...BELFAST...WIND GAP AROUND 600 PM...STOCKERTOWN AND
TATAMY AROUND 615 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4087 7510 4067 7530 4098 7572 4111 7556

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