Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

681 
WHUS71 KPHI 190930
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-192100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.101219T1600Z-101221T1100Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
430 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30
  KNOTS.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET
  ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING AT LEAST
  THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

628 
WHUS71 KPHI 192048
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-200500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
348 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
  OCEAN WATERS.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND GENERALLY 2 TO 4
  FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

201 
WHUS71 KPHI 200138
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
838 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-200930-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
838 PM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. 
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE 
  OCEAN WATERS. 

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND GENERALLY 2 TO 4 
  FEET ON DELAWARE BAY. 

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RPW

904 
WHUS71 KPHI 201140
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-202200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
640 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. 
  OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE 
  OCEAN WATERS. 

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND GENERALLY 2 TO 4
  FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

764 
WHUS71 KPHI 202033
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

ANZ450>455-211100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0029.101220T2033Z-101221T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
333 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

** WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. 

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

* TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-211100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
333 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

642 
WHUS71 KPHI 210842
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

ANZ450>455-211700-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
342 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-211700-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
342 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

704 
WHUS71 KPHI 211427
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

ANZ450>455-212300-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
927 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-212300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
927 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

206 
WHUS71 KPHI 211951
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

ANZ450>455-221000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101221T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
251 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-221000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
251 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

485 
WHUS71 KPHI 220201
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
901 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-221100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
901 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

* TIMING...IN PROGRESS THROUGH 1 PM WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

236 
WHUS71 KPHI 220851
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

ANZ430-431-452>455-221700-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
351 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 25
  KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN PROBABLY TO GALE FORCE DURING
  TONIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST VALUES OF
  40 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 45 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HOURS
  THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY
  NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY BUT LIKELY INCREASING TO
  NEAR 5 FEET AT THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY LATE TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY AND TO AT LEAST 6 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL
  WATERS.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN
  INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
  PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6 PM
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-221700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
351 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A GALE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20
  KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE THEN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING
  TONIGHT. STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 45 KNOTS ARE
  EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HOURS THURSDAY. GALE FORCE
  GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
  THE OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY BUT LIKELY INCREASING TO
  NEAR 6 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
  AND THURSDAY.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN
  INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
  PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6 PM
  THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$



DRAG

996 
WHUS71 KPHI 221158
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
658 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

ANZ452>455-222000-
/O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
658 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING.
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
  SUBSIDE MIDDAY THEN INCREASE TO AT LEAST 25 KNOTS LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
  STRONGEST WINDS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 45 KNOTS ARE PROJECTED
  DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HOURS THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
  POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER
  ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY EXCEPT NEAR 5 FEET EARLY ON
  THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 5 FEET AT THE
  ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND TO AT
  LEAST 6 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN 
  INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR 
  PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6 
  PM THURSDAY.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-222000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
658 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 20
  KNOTS AROUND 9 AM THEN INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
  GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING TONIGHT. STRONGEST
  GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  DAYLIGHT HOURS HOURS THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
  INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC
  COASTAL WATERS.

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY BUT LIKELY INCREASING TO 
  NEAR 6 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT 
  AND THURSDAY. 

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN 
  INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR 
  PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6 PM 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-222000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
658 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 25 
  KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN PROBABLY TO GALE FORCE DURING 
  TONIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST VALUES 
  OF 40 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 45 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS 
  HOURS THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE 
  THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL 
  WATERS. 

* SEAS... GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY BUT LIKELY INCREASING TO 
  NEAR 5 FEET AT THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY LATE TONIGHT AND 
  THURSDAY AND TO AT LEAST 6 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC OUTER COASTAL 
  WATERS. 

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN 
  INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR 
  PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6 PM 
  THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

235 
WHUS71 KPHI 221501
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1001 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

ANZ450>455-222215-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0094.000000T0000Z-101222T1500Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1001 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40
  KNOTS.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
  FOR PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 600 AM AND
  600 PM ON THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THERE IS A RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME
FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-222215-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0018.101223T0300Z-101224T0900Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1001 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40
  KNOTS.

* SEAS...2 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
  FOR PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS IS BETWEEN 600 AM AND
  600 PM THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THERE IS A RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME
FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST WHILE STRENGTHENING TODAY INTO MONDAY. AS THE STORM
DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FAST MOVING AND
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD ABOUT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KIND OF AN ECLECTIC COMBINATION OF MODELS WE DECIDED TO USE FOR THE
SHORT TERM BASED ON INITIALIZATION. FIRST THE JET STREAK IN MISSOURI
IS PROBABLY WITHIN THE MODEL NOISE LEVEL, BUT WAS INITIALIZED UP TO
10 KNOTS TOO WEAK PENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. SECOND THE SHORT WAVE
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WAS HANDLED THE BEST BY THE WRF-NMM WHICH HAD
ECMWF SUPPORT FOR ITS EVOLUTION. THROUGH TONIGHT WE DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE RGEM MODEL WHICH HANDLED BOTH FEATURES THE CLOSEST AND THEN
SEGUED TO A ECMWF/WRF-NMM COMPROMISE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

WE CAN SEE THE MISSOURI SHORT WAVE ENHANCING CLOUDS OVER THE
VIRGINIAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND RADARS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DETECT VIRGA. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS TO ENHANCE THE FORCING AND
PRECIPITATION ONCE IT NEARS THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. STILL
THE BEST FORCING REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EVEN THE WRF-NMM WITH THE .1
QPF LURKING JUST OFF THE NJ COAST IS ONLY SHOWING AN AXIS OF FGEN
FORCING AT THE 600-500MB WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH. IRONICALLY THE GFS
HAS BETTER THETA E CONVERGENCE AND A HINT OF FCST MID LVL WAA
CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SPITE OF ITS QPF BEING FARTHER OFFSHORE.
THE UPSHOT WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMING ALONG A BIT HOTTER, WE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST AND CARRY A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHICH MAY VERY WELL VERIFY AS SNIRGA FOR PLACES
FARTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY PROBABLE SNOW ARRIVES.
WITH UPPER 20S DEW POINTS JUST OFFSHORE, AND A MIDDAY TIME OF
ARRIVAL, IF ANY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ROADWAY PROBLEMS AT THIS
TIME.

WE WENT WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE NW BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE, CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE CENTRAL AND TOWARD THE LOWER
DATASETS AT THE COAST BECAUSE OF MORE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT BRINGS US TO SHORT WAVE NUMBER TWO ONCE OVER MINNESOTA. A
DP/DT ON THIS SHORT WAVE SHOWED THAT MODELING DID NOT GIVE IT MUCH
LOVE AND IS STILL PLAYING CATCH UP. AS A RESULT THE CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT VS REMAINING
NORTH JUST ONE RUN AGO. ALL OF THE MODELING IN ONE FASHION OR
ANOTHER DEVELOP A HINT OF A NORLUN TROF AS THIS FEATURE DIVES. THIS
IS THE EQUIVALENT OF FCSTG TSRAS IN THE SUMMER, EVEN IF YOU FEEL IT
WILL OCCUR, THE CHANCES OF PEGGING EXACTLY WHERE IS NOT UP TO THE
SCOPE OF THE SCIENCE YET. WE FOLLOWED WHAT USUALLY IS THE BEST
HANDLER OF NORLUNS IN OUR CWA, THE RGEM FOR TONIGHT.
COINCIDENTALLY THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR RESULT. NOT SURPRISING THAT
WE ARE SEEING THE BEST FCST MID LVL QVEC CONV AS THE CLOSED LOW
DIVES SE. BECAUSE OF THE SHARPER TURN, WE DID SIDE WITH THE ECMWF
/WRF-NMM TRACK AND THE PLACEMENT OF FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR
AS OF NOW TO TURN THE FLURRIES INTO SNOW SHOWERS AND OUR WINDEX
CHECKLIST DID NOT RAISE ANY FLAGS. WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE ARE QUESTIONING THE LOWER GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT AND
WE WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT THINKING ON MONDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BOMBS WELL OFFSHORE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE. BUT THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS NOT SPLENDID AND IF
ANYTHING MAY PASS RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEST OF US. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY REACHED NORTH. SO WE KEPT
THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES JUST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WRF-NMM IS
ON ITS OWN WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT AND IF ANYTHING HAS HAD A
WINDY BIAS THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WIND GUSTS WERE MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND GENERALLY IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE. STAT GUIDANCE IS
CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON FCST 850MB TEMPS.

THE BOMBING LOW IS FORECAST TO DO A LOOP SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS MIGHT KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UP MONDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE OUR CONFIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO GO WITH THIS IS LOW, WE
ACCEPTED STAT GUIDANCE. OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.

THE FUJIWARA LOOPING BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE
ANOTHER FORECAST AFFECT. IT SHOULD SHRED THE APPROACHING LOW FROM
THE ROCKIES TO PIECES AS IT ENTERS ITS CONFLUENCE FLOW SPHERE OF
INFLUENCE. WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND ITS PARENT
VORTEX ALOFT, THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. WHILE A
DIFFERENT TRACK, ITS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM WHAT OCCURRED LAST
THURSDAY EXCEPT ON TUESDAY THE AIR MASS IS A BIT RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WARMER. AS A TREND WE SCALED BACK POPS TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHAVED THEM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. STAT GUIDANCE
SEEMS ODDLY CHILLY ON TUESDAY UNLESS CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND ARRIVE
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. FOR NOW WE WENT A CAT ABV STAT GUIDANCE
BASED ON WHAT LOOKS LIKE BALMY FCST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
(APPROACHING 1300M).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THERE ACTUALLY
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS YET ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z MODELS
CONTINUED THIS IDEA. THERE ARE TWO CAMPS OF TRACKS WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SUPPORTING MORE SNOW WHILE THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A MORE SUPPRESSED FORECAST STORM TRACK. EVERY GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBER HAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SO EVEN AT THIS FCST JUNCTURE IT
APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A QUESTION OF HOW/WHEN WILL THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVE, NOT IF. EVEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT HAVE A
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION ARE FORECASTING A ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGE AND
SOME COLD AIR TO INCREASE THE BAROCLINICITY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW, TWO INGREDIENTS THAT WERE MISSING FROM THIS WEEKEND'S
LOW. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CAMPS IS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE CLOSED VORTICES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE WAVE EMERGING FROM
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MORE PHASING THAN THE
OTHERS AS OF TODAY.

PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY EVENT, THE FAST MOVING WEAK LOW, DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EXTREME WESTERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXTREME, BUT WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 15 IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. ON FRIDAY, LOW
PRESSURE, TRACKING EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WILL CAUSE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, TO OUR SOUTH, FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE STORM, SNOW COULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. IT'S NOT EVERY YEAR WE EVEN HAVE A
THREAT OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WELL EAST OF OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS...BUT A SMALL CHC
FOR SOME MVFR WAS ADDED TO THE 06Z TAFS FOR KACY AND KMIV SINCE A
BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME -SN MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MY TAFS FOR KACY AND KMIV RESEMBLE THE
NAM MORE THAN THE GFS...THIS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC.

VF RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND STAYS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RESUMES OVER THE AREA. THE DRY FLOW
WILL PRODUCE ONLY FOR A FEW CLOUDS AND VFR WILL BE THE RULE.

OUTLOOK...
A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUE WITH ONLY SOME
VFR CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. VFR WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND DEEPEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH SCA CRITERIA BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE
DECIDED TO START THE FLAG AT NOON...TO PAD THE BEGINNING TIME A BIT.
THE SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST A FEW DAYS WITH SOME GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN THE 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS. I DIDN'T WANT TO ISSUE A GALE
WATCH ATTM, SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME CHC THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY QUICKER AND GALES WON'T DEVELOP. WE WILL JUST MENTION -FEW-
GALE GUSTS IN THE WORDS. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE WEEK TO LOSE THE
SCA FLAG, WITH THE LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SPINNING UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SFC HIGH NOT CRESTING UNTIL FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HAYES
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GIGI/RPW
AVIATION...O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-200845-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
337 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-200845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
337 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.